Jasmine Paolini vs Anastasija Sevastova Prediction: Who Will Thrive on Centre Court Grass?

Italy
Italy
Finished
Latvia
Latvia
Tennis, Grand Slam, Wimbledon, London, Great Britain, Round 128
30.06.2025, 15:50
London Great Britain 
Grass Court 
Raphael George
28 Jun 2025
15:03
Statistics of the month:
52
38
1
57.14%
Statistics
Odds
Bet Type
Bookmaker
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Odds 1,67
Bet Type Paolini win & over 16.5 games
Bonus 100 EUR
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Jasmine Paolini vs Anastasija Sevastova: Prediction for the Match on June 30, 2025

It's games day in the Wimbledon 2025 and rising star Jasmine Paolini meets the veteran Anastasija Sevastova in the fabulous Round 128 atmosphere on the grass courts of Centre Court. This clash will certainly provide much-in-demand tennis entertainment with the Italian punishing on powerful groundstrokes and Sevastova mixing things up with slice and court craft. In this Wimbledon grass-court duel approaching, check the player profiles, head-to-head, betting trends, and expert insights to back your favourite player.

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The world No. 4 Paolini enters this match on very strong Wimbledon grass court form. Coming fresh from the Bad Homburg semis, she won over Haddad Maia 7-5, 7-5, and then Fernandez in two tiebreaks, before falling 6-1, 6-3 to Iga Swiatek. That marks three wins and two losses on grass for her this season, and her powerful baseline game has strongly thrived on European lawn courts. Paolini arrives at Wimbledon in fine form, having clinched her 23rd Grand Slam win at Roland Garros in a straight-sets, 6-4, 6-? victory over Starodubtseva. Her treacherous clay-to-grass transition was also shown in an Instagram story post, captioned "Switched to grass!" during the Berlin Open. With no injuries reported and a strong mental state—having also won in Rome in May—she is well set up. This year, she became the first Italian since Reggi in 1985 to win the Italian Open WTA-1000. Confidence and momentum offer Paolini a significant opportunity as she looks to make a deep run here.

At 35, Latvia's Anastasija Sevastova brings experience and crafty variety to the grass courts of Wimbledon. Currently ranked No. 402 in the comeback, she holds in comports with the 5-5 W/L record this season. She went in early in the lead-up grass events, therefore limiting her match rhythm on the grass. Career grass-court statistics indicate that she holds overall 23-17 with 58% wins . She is in fashion to build rhythm after retiring; 2025 did not earn much momentum—she has no deep runs nor interviews hinting at a breakout. No fresh social media posts to hint the condition or mindset. Yet Sevastova poses a serious threat to anyone trying to keep rhythm with her crafty tactics and depth, especially on grass. She has not yet faced Paolini on tour, but the two met recently in qualifying in Rabat. No fresh injury reports. At Wimbledon, her experience and slice game would be her tools against Paolini's power. Still, the gap in form is huge-thrust early upsets have to be an important target in her own right, and she will need to rely on tactical savvy to achieve them.

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The head-to-head record has Paolini on top with two wins to none against Anastasija Sevastova. The wins for Paolini come on hard courts, with the main victory being a 6‑1, 2‑1 sort of triumph for Paolini in 2021, where Sevastova retired early.

  • Paolini’s grass intensity: She's unbeaten in two tight tiebreaks this season, demonstrating killer mental toughness on crucial points.
  • Strong WTA form: Paolini reached Bad Homburg semis and Rome title, showcasing both hard and clay skills—an excellent prelude to grass success.
  • Sevastova’s return consistency: Historically excels with slice and drop-shots, generating around 60% first-serve return points in earlier tournaments—a trend to watch.
  • Serve dominance from Paolini: She’s winning a high percentage of first-serve points, averaging over 65% during key matches this season.

I’m confident that Paolini's form, fitness, and recent title successes give her a clear edge. Add her tiebreak resilience and Sevastova’s inconsistent comeback, and the forecast strongly leans toward an Italian straight-sets victory with enough drama to deliver solid value. My top three betting tips:

Paolini win & over 16.5 games @ 1.67 odds on 1xbet – Her powerful game and momentum from wins over Haddad Maia and Fernandez make a quick win plausible.

Over 17.5 total games @ 1.875 odds on Betway – With both players likely trading early breaks and tight games, expect a competitive opener pushing overall game count higher.

Under 8.5 total games in Set 1 @ 1.90 odds on Bet365 – Paolini often starts fast, and Sevastova has struggled to find rhythm early. A dominant 6–2 or 6–1 first set for the Italian offers value.

Odds
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Odds 1,67
Bet Type Paolini win & over 16.5 games
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Odds 1,875
Bet Type Over 17.5 total games
Bonus 250 USD
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Odds 1,90
Bet Type Under 8.5 total games in Set 1
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