Jessica Pegula vs Aryna Sabalenka Prediction: Aryna Sabalenka will lift the trophy

The US Open Final, which is scheduled to take place on September 7, 2024, promises to be a nail-biter, pitting two of the best contenders in women's tennis against each other: world number six Jessica Pegula and current WTA number two Aryna Sabalenka. The participants have been in form during the tournament and are already on the threshold of winning one of the biggest titles in the game. That final guarantees not only two different playing styles but also renews a very fierce rivalry, Sabalenka leading 5-2 in their head-to-heads. The last time they met, at the Cincinnati Open last month, Sabalenka won in straight sets, adding to the intrigue of this final at Flushing Meadows.

Jessica Pegula (WTA #6)

That goes without saying, Jessica Pegula of the USA has been in phenomenal form at the US Open. After a spate of straight-set victories, notably an emphatic triumph over world No. 1 Iga Świątek, Pegula now reaches the final following a gritty three-set victory over Karolina Muchova in the semifinals. Known for the consistency of her game and ability to nullify her opponents' strengths, Pegula's recent form exhibits her adaptability and resilience mentally. Precise baseline game, great defensive skills, and well-chosen shot selection have marked her path into the final.

Pegula's game is rife with consistency, intelligent shot placement, and court coverage. She masters the long rallies to make opponents go for riskier shots. The main approach for Pegula will be to counter-punch against Sabalenka's aggressive power. She tries to absorb the heavy groundstrokes of Sabalenka by using her solid backhand and forehand defense to make Sabalenka overhit the ball. She'll want to capitalize on unforced errors, which Sabalenka may make if she is forced to create her own pace repeatedly, so her ability to stay in rallies will be important.

Further, Pegula's serve has held up well in this tournament, but she will need to find a high first-serve percentage to limit Sabalenka's ability to be aggressive with her returns. Pegula will probably tee off on Sabalenka's backhand with deep cross-court shots to avoid giving Sabalenka any chance to take the initiative with her forehand. Probably most important for Pegula is converting her break point chances, which she has done well in the tournament so far.

Aryna Sabalenka (WTA #2)

By contrast, Aryna Sabalenka has steamrolled her way through the tournament with the power and aggression that have become synonymous with her game. The Belarusian has secured multiple straight-set victories with her grouping of massive, deep groundstrokes, complemented by a dominant serve, designed to take time away and bully opponents into submission. A semifinal victory over Emma Navarro indeed cemented her as a forceful finalist, but it also revealed a number of areas of susceptibility-particularly in unforced errors and momentary lapses in concentration.

Game plan-wise, Sabalenka will rely on her power from the baseline; however, she will have to be aggressive while sustaining control. The most important thing she could do would be making the rallies short, inching forward in every possible way by dominating with the first serve and following through with scorching groundstrokes on the forehand. Sabalenka has used her serve as a weapon throughout the tournament and will surely try to get free points from aces and unreturnable serves, but she can't forget getting herself into trouble with double faults that have seeped in at times.

Sabalenka will have to outmaneuver Pegula with a change of pace and angles to accommodate the drop shots and crosscourt forehands that will force Pegula to go off balance. This might mean that Sabalenka should show more patience and not fall into the trap of hitting too many unforced errors, especially when Pegula could retrieve them and extend the rallies. Another huge part of Sabalenka's strategy will involve attacking the Pegula second serve, since any weakness in the returns by Pegula might get capitalized on through the aggressive returning game of Sabalenka.

Expert Betting Tips

With Sabalenka leading the head-to-head 5-2 and her form throughout the tournament, she is coming into this final as a slight favorite. The defensive skills and consistency of Pegula will surely test Sabalenka, but again, Sabalenka's superior power and ability to finish off points quickly should give her the edge. This is likely to be a very closely contested match, though.

Pegula is strong enough and mentally resilient not to be bumped off without much bother. Perhaps Sabalenka wins the first set, but the resilience of Pegula probably gets this to three sets. The capability of Sabalenka to raise her level at crucial stages should prevail in the deciding set.

Finally, this might be a many-game match, considering both players are expected to win a set and how competitive both players have been against each other. Both Pegula and Sabalenka have shown the ability to win tight sets, so expect a very long battle.

• Aryna Sabalenka Win & Over 2.5 Sets @ 3.78 Odds
• Over 21.5 Games @ 1.85 Odds
• Aryna Sabalenka Win 2-1 @ 3.50 Odds