The semis of the 2024 US Open-Emma Navarro versus Aryna Sabalenka-are bound to be scrumptious, pitting one of the game's big hitters up against the surging star. Second in the world, Aryna Sabalenka is in imperious form, while Emma Navarro currently lies in 12th and has finally had her breakthrough year, riding high on a winning streak. Both have been sparkling through the draw so far, setting up a thrilling encounter.
Emma Navarro (WTA #12)
Navarro has had quite the season, cementing her place as one of the stronger contenders on the WTA tour. This ride into the semis has been all about grit and tactical gameplay, which she showed in the last match against Paula Badosa. Without hitting any aces, together with a few double faults, she still had a first-serve percentage of 73%, an indication that she has performed constantly under pressure. That can be contextualized by saving 4 out of 6 break points and converting 5 break points of her own against a player of Badosa's caliber, it speaks volumes about her mental fortitude and tactical awareness.
The game of Navarro is built around solid baseline play, excellent movement, and the ability to mix up her shots, keeping opponents out of position. Not the most powerfully gifted tour player, she compensates with the accuracy and strategic shot placement that often pulls opponents out of position before finishing points at the net or with well-timed winners.
She will need to look to her consistency and tactical acumen to blunt Sabalenka's powerful game. One of the keys to success for Navarro will lie in keeping a high first-serve percentage and being aggressive on second-serves return, as Sabalenka gets rattled when pressed upon her second serve. She needs to make the rallies big-allow Sabalenka to hit more balls and hence, probably drawing errors from the Belarusian. If Navarro mixes up the shots, differs in speed and angle-she might just break Sabalenka's rhythm and thereby get opportunities to counter-punch.
She will have to capitalize on any chances that come her way to break Sabalenka's serve, which might mean having to step in and take the ball early-especially on second-serve returns. She will also have to keep the ball deep to prevent Sabalenka from stepping into the court and bossing things.
Aryna Sabalenka (WTA #2)
Currently, Sabalenka is the most in-form player on tour and the current number 2 of the world. With her dominant display against Qinwen Zheng in the quarter-finals, Sabalenka showed raw power and an aggressive baseline game. That win extended her winning streak to 10 matches and 6 consecutive sets won to highlight her current dominance. In her last match, Sabalenka had 3 aces and won 73% of her first-serve points, which implies she could often work her way into controlling a rally on her serve. Even in making 19 unforced errors, her offensive-oriented game plan set up a path for her to muscle past her opponent, converting 4 break points to seal the victory in straight sets.
The crux of Sabalenka's game is aggressive, high-risk tennis. If anything, she has the powerful groundstrokes and serve to tear apart any opponent on their day. Yet, her game can also be inconsistent, with double faults and unforced errors at times seeping in at crucial moments.
Sabalenka will aim to keep her game at baseline, where she is powerful and very aggressive with her serve. She will look to overpower Navarro from the baseline, employing her heavy groundstrokes to dictate points and move Navarro around the court. Key for Sabalenka will be a high percentage of first serves, because this can keep her in control of the pace of the match and stop Navarro from getting chances to attack her second serve.
She will also need to keep the number of unforced errors low because Navarro is one of those players who relish consistency and counter-punching. To counter this, Sabalenka should try to cut down on rallies by hitting winners or forcing errors in the early part of a point. Sabalenka will also be better off approaching the net to finish off the points and deny time to Navarro, who likes to get involved in longer rallies.
Expert Betting Tips
This is a classic semifinal matchup that pits Navarro's consistency and tactical game against Sabalenka's raw power and aggression. Much as Navarro has been in excellent form and has the tools to frustrate Sabalenka, the level at which the Belarusian is playing and the momentum she carries in make her the favorite going into this match.
With her serve and aggressive baseline game, Sabalenka will more than likely dominate this match, especially on the fast courts of the US Open. If she can contain her unforced errors and keep her first-serve percentage high, it is more than likely that she will overpower Navarro. However, Navarro can be pretty resilient, capable of withstanding pressure, and might even push Sabalenka to a deciding set if the Belarusian fails to maintain standards.
- Aryna Sabalenka Win & Under 23.5 Games @ 1.702 Odds
- Emma Navarro to Win a Set (No) @ 1.64 Odds
- Aryna Sabalenka Win 2-0 @ 1.80 Odds
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