The Basel ATP 500 heats up, with the Round of 16 pitting France's current world No. 16, Ugo Humbert, against Belgium's David Goffin, who comes in ranked 54th in the world. Both have been in good form over the last few weeks, coming in with identical 7-3 marks over their last 10. Where Humbert's recent form has him produce some pretty strong displays of tennis, Goffin is an older veteran who still seems to have bounce and fight in his step. This Basel match will be tactical since indoor hard courts become the sticky domain for both men with their aggressive baseline styles. Given that the head-to-head record between them stands 2-1 in favor of Humbert, this is bound to be a pretty close affair.
Claim Welcome BonusUgo Humbert
Coming into this match, confidence will be high for Ugo Humbert as he just edged out Swiss wildcard Jerome Kym in a tight three-set match. Serving stats of 13 aces and an impressive 96% second serve winning percentage really pinpoint his reliance on serve. Furthermore, in the match against Kym, the fact that he saved all break points that came his way is indicative of his clutch performance under pressure. His powerful lefty game is moulded for Basel's indoor hard courts, and his game of aggressive shot-making often enables him to boss the rallies.
It all comes down to whose style of play the other guy has to give up to. The Ugo Humbert aggressive baseline game is powered by his strong left-handed serve, able to dominate shorter rallies when he's on. His 82% first serve points won in the previous match show just how effective he can be when the serve is on. Secondly, as his movement around the court would enable him to hit the penetrating forehands from the awkward angles, he had the potential of making Goffin, a player usually with a steady baseline rhythm, disturbed. Humbert will be aggressive in return and will look to make merry on Goffin's second serve, finishing off points early.
David Goffin
On the other hand, David Goffin, despite being outside the top 50, is a counterpuncher. His recent victory over Matteo Arnaldi showed his resilience and stamina as he came back after losing a tight first-set tiebreak in that match. Not as reliant on aces as Humbert, Goffin could lean on his return game, which took 50% of second-serve return points against Arnaldi, as crucial in breaking down Humbert's serve. Technically, though, it's the Frenchman that heads into the encounter as the slight favorite on paper; Goffin is formidable in this round because of experience and tactical intelligence.
David Goffin is, however, a master at nullifying power. Without the same firepower as Humbert, his trademark grinding out of long rallies and absorbing pace frustrates opponents. He's great at transitioning from defense to offense, and where the opponents give him an opening, he never hesitates. Much of his strength lies in consistency, especially on return, when he posted some impressive return statistics against Arnaldi. Should Goffin get into longer rallies-being able to force Humbert to overplay his hand-he may find some opportunities to break serve. Furthermore, it will be about how well he can read the game and adjust his tactics during the match that will help him outsmart Humbert at crucial junctures of the match.
Expert Betting Tips
This presents an exciting contrast in styles as Humbert's power and precision face off against the strategic and counter-attacking skills of Goffin. Generally speaking, the indoor hard courts of Basel will favor the high-powered game of Humbert. His ability to serve and win free points with aces regularly, in addition to his effectiveness in converting break points, gives him the upper hand in quick exchanges. Goffin will most likely have to depend on his returning game and lengthening of the rallies in order to outlast Humbert at times.
While physically, there is nothing wrong with either of them, the strong first and second serve percentages recorded by Humbert from his last match have indicated that he will be tough to break down. Goffin, while consistent on return, will find it hard to apply sustained pressure against Humbert's superior serving game. Though Goffin can produce sections of brilliant tennis, Humbert's brute force, not to mention 2-1 lead in the head-to-head, would thus suggest that he should come out on top once more.
- Ugo Humbert (-2.5) Games Handicap @ 1.61 Odds
- David Goffin to Win a Set (yes) @ 1.68 Odds
- Ugo Humbert Wins 2-1 @ 3.50 Odds
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