In yet a hot Turin presenting the ATP Tour Finals, another Group A action has been set to go live between Taylor Fritz and Alex de Minaur. The world number 5 American Fritz currently stands at 1-1 in the group after securing an emphatic win over Daniil Medvedev, before then falling to home favorite Jannik Sinner in his second match. This has been the tougher route for the 9th-ranked Australian, Alex de Minaur, as he's lost consecutively to Sinner and Medvedev coming into this match, so really, it was last-ditch in salvaging his run. With the head-to-head statistics slightly tilting in favor of de Minaur, can he now harness that advantage in a bid to turn his fortunes or will the firepower of Fritz break through? This will be contrasting in style between Fritz's powerful serves and aggressive baseline game against de Minaur's defensive speed and great returning abilities.
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Alex de Minaur leads 6-3 in their head-to-head record, which means he would go into this tie with a great psychological advantage over the American. In any case, recent form and the context of the tournament point to another story. His strong match against Medvedev showed him dominating rallies and controlling service games well, but he lost to Sinner because his vulnerabilities under pressure, especially if pressed by players with all-court good game, prevailed. However, de Minaur's losses also exposed some inconsistencies in his return conversion and an inability to cope with baseline pace. To that extent, both players will go into this match knowing full well they have to iron out their respective weaknesses. Fritz will be looking at projecting a serve-oriented game and getting ahead early in the rallies, whereas de Minaur is likely going to be more counterpunching-oriented by exploiting his agility to elongate the rallies and make Fritz hit an error.
Tactical Approach
Taylor Fritz: Fritz relies so much on his serve. His Round 2 stats were 79% won on first serve, while he struggled for consistency, converting no break points against Sinner. In that light, Fritz will need not only to be accurate with high percentages of first serves but mix up the placements to keep de Minaur from getting into a rhythm to anticipate and adapt.
Known for his strong forehand, Fritz is going to need to dictate from the baseline, targeting the backhand of de Minaur as a means to break down the rhythm of his Australian opponent. Aggressive, he limits de Minaur's capability of grinding him down in longer rallies.
As de Minaur lives on counterattacks, Fritz can further look at going forward-especially on shorter balls-and putting the points away at the net. It would also close out the points in quick time and not allow de Minaur to get back into rhythm.
Alex de Minaur: So far in this tournament, the De Minaur return game hasn't really come into play too much, having won just 15% on first-serve returns against Medvedev. An increase in depth on his returns will be important to disturb Fritz's service rhythm and perhaps get a break opportunity or two.
As a natural counterpuncher, de Minaur will try to extend the rallies and thereby wear Fritz out in the hope that he commits errors. If he is able to cash in on his greater court coverage, then he should be able to wear Fritz down, which will help reveal his frailties over time.
Fritz is more comfortable when given a predictable tempo. De Minaur can unsettle Fritz's baseline game by mixing in drop shots, lobs, and changing pace frequently, which could force Fritz into committing unforced errors.
Expert Betting Tips
Both opponents come into this match with different motivations. Fritz can go into the matchup with his head held high after a robust performance in his group opener, though that inconsistency against second-serve points and failure to convert on his breaks could be areas de Minaur takes advantage of. For his part, de Minaur might draw upon some degree of comfort-despite the losses-against an opponent he has outmaneuvered so many times before.
Given the conditions and recent form, this match is all about how well Fritz serves and takes time away early in the points. De Minaur will try to extend the rallies, but if Fritz could maintain a high percentage of first serves in and break points converted, he might just pip the Australian. If de Minaur can, however, break into Fritz's rhythm and returnees consistently deep, he might just take over the match.
- Taylor Fritz Wins @ 1.42 Odds
- Taylor Fritz Wins @ 1.40 Odds
- Taylor Fritz Wins @ 1.44 Odds
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