The Monte Carlo clay is heating up, and next on court, we've got a spicy Round of 16 matchup: Portugal’s Nuno Borges taking on Greece’s Stefanos Tsitsipas. On paper, it's David vs Goliath—a top-10 stalwart against an underdog quietly building momentum. But as this clay season keeps reminding us, rankings mean little once the first ball is struck.
Borges comes into this with back-to-back wins and plenty of confidence after a gritty three-set win over Pedro Martinez. He’s serving big, returning even bigger, and embracing the grind. Tsitsipas? Well, he’s been... streaky. His three-set win over Jordan Thompson was a rollercoaster, and while he pulled through, cracks are showing.
So, what should bettors expect? We’re breaking down the numbers, playing styles, and trends to deliver the smartest bets for this clash.
Let’s dive into the data and see if Borges can pull off a Monte Carlo miracle—or if Tsitsipas steadies the ship.
Claim Welcome BonusNuno Borges Preview – The Quiet Riser
Form: LWLWW
Last Match: Def. Pedro Martinez 7-5, 6-7, 6-4
Nuno Borges isn’t the loudest name on tour, but man, the guy knows how to scrap. Against Pedro Martinez, Borges showed poise, patience, and just the right amount of firepower to grind out a tough three-set win. He blasted 10 aces, balanced the occasional hiccup (4 double faults), and managed a 59% first-serve percentage. Not elite, but enough to get the job done.
What really stood out? His clutch play. Borges saved 66% of break points and returned 39% of Martinez’s first serves—impressive numbers for someone not known for a booming return game. Oh, and he converted 5 break points of his own.
He’s not flashy, but he’s efficient. His baseline game is compact, his footwork clean, and his decision-making sharp. Borges doesn’t overplay—he waits for his chances, especially on clay where patience pays.
This run in Monte Carlo marks one of the strongest stretches of form in his career. The confidence is growing, and while he doesn’t have a signature win over a top-10 player yet, this feels like the kind of match where he’ll believe he can hang.
He’s a dog in the odds, sure—but don’t mistake that for a guaranteed loss. Borges has tools, rhythm, and now, some real momentum.
Stefanos Tsitsipas Preview – Searching for Rhythm
Form: WLWLW
Last Match: Def. Jordan Thompson 4-6, 6-4, 6-2
Stefanos Tsitsipas is a two-time Monte Carlo champion—but these days, he's more of a puzzle than a powerhouse. His last outing? A topsy-turvy win over Jordan Thompson where he looked out of sorts early before finally turning the tide late in the match.
Let’s talk stats: 6 aces, 2 double faults, and a first-serve percentage of just 50%. That’s not where you want it to be—especially for someone who thrives on setting up forehands off a strong serve. He did save 71% of break points and converted 4 breaks of his own, which bailed him out.
Tsitsipas on clay is still a threat. His topspin-heavy forehand, smooth movement, and court awareness make him a nightmare when he’s flowing. But that rhythm? It’s been off. The serve's inconsistent, and the one-handed backhand has looked vulnerable under pressure.
Against Borges, Stef’s experience and raw talent are obvious advantages. But if he starts slow again, Borges is the kind of opponent who can make things very uncomfortable. The pressure’s on Tsitsipas not just to win, but to look convincing doing it—because deeper into this tournament, there won’t be any room for shaky sets.
He’s favored for a reason. But he's far from unbeatable right now.
Head to Head
Record: Tsitsipas leads 1-0
Last Meeting: Tsitsipas def. Borges 6-3, 6-3 @ Rome Masters 2023
Their only prior meeting was last spring in Rome, also on clay. Tsitsipas controlled that match from the baseline, dictating tempo and forcing Borges to defend more than he could handle. It was clean, efficient, and pretty routine.
But here's the thing—that match was almost a year ago, and Borges has clearly leveled up since then. He’s more confident, more composed, and in better form. Tsitsipas, on the other hand, has been fighting to rediscover his best version.
Head-to-head data can only tell us so much when the sample size is this small. Yes, Tsitsipas has the edge. But Borges now knows what that level looks like—and if Stefanos brings anything less than his A-game, this one might not be so straightforward.
Mentally, Borges comes in with nothing to lose. Tsitsipas? He’s playing not just for the win, but to prove he’s still a serious clay contender.
Expert Betting Tips
Over 21.5 Total Games @ 1.89 Odds
Both players are in decent serving form. The model projects at least one tight set, possibly three.
Nuno Borges +4.5 Game Handicap @ 1.81 Odds
Even in a straight-sets loss, Borges can stay close. In a 3-setter, this line looks very strong.
Total Aces Over 10 @ 3.00 Odds
Borges had 10 alone last match. Stef should add 5-6 easily based on his serving pattern.
Other predictions
