If you thought this would be another walk in the park for Novak Djokovic, think again. The 24-time Grand Slam champion heads into Monte Carlo under a bit of a cloud after a surprising straight-sets loss to Jakub Mensik in Miami. And now? He’s facing Alejandro Tabilo, the Chilean lefty who already beat him once this year—in Rome, no less.
Sure, Djokovic is still the heavy favorite on paper, but form, fatigue, and recent head-to-head history are creating a perfect storm for potential drama. Tabilo, ranked 32 in the world, just outlasted Stan Wawrinka and comes in with nothing to lose. That’s dangerous.
In this preview, we’ll break down both players’ current form, review their only prior meeting (which Tabilo won), and lean into our expert prediction. If you’re betting this match, don’t just go with your gut—follow the data.
Claim Welcome BonusNovak Djokovic (Serbia, ATP 5)
Recent Form: W–W–W–W–L
Last Match: Lost to Jakub Mensik (Miami Final) – 6-7, 6-7
Don’t let the loss fool you—Djokovic is still Djokovic. But his straight-sets defeat to the 19-year-old Jakub Mensik in Miami did raise eyebrows. Not necessarily because of the loss, but how it happened: flat body language, missed break point chances, and an uncharacteristically low 23% first-serve return rate.
That said, there were positives: 7 aces, just 1 double fault, and a rock-solid 77% first serve percentage. Physically, he’s moving well, but he’s looked just a step slow mentally when it comes to capitalizing on key moments. Could it be motivation? Age? Or just early clay-season rust?
Historically, Novak doesn’t start his clay swing at full throttle. Monte Carlo is often where he tests the waters before ramping up. So while he’s still the clear favorite, this could be another match where he leaves the door slightly ajar—especially against a guy who knows how to beat him.
Bottom line: Novak’s stats still flash elite, but he hasn’t quite flipped the switch yet this year.
Alejandro Tabilo (Chile, ATP 32)
Recent Form: L–W–L–L–W
Last Match: Beat Stan Wawrinka 6-1, 5-7, 7-5
Alejandro Tabilo has been flying under the radar, but this guy’s got game—especially on clay. His first-round win over Wawrinka was a bit of a rollercoaster, but it showed grit. He dropped the second set, regrouped, and fought off break points to close it in the third. Grit like that matters in Monte Carlo’s swirling, grind-heavy conditions.
Stats from that match were mixed: 3 aces and 5 double faults (not great), but he converted 5 break points and had a 38% first-serve return rate, which is solid on clay. Tabilo isn’t overpowering anyone, but he uses his lefty angles and spin to drag opponents out of position—and that’s exactly how he dismantled Djokovic in Rome, winning 6-2, 6-3.
He’s not afraid of the big moment, and when he gets rolling, he plays with swagger. The big question is whether he can maintain that level against a dialed-in Djokovic.
But if Novak gives him any daylight—like he did in Miami—Tabilo has the tools to make this way more interesting than expected.
Head to Head: Tabilo Leads 1–0
Yup—you read that right. Djokovic doesn’t have the head-to-head edge here. Their only previous meeting came just months ago at the 2024 Rome Masters, and Tabilo absolutely stunned the tennis world with a straight-sets win: 6-2, 6-3. It wasn’t a fluke either—Tabilo out-hit, out-rallied, and flat-out outplayed the world No. 1 that day.
The match exposed a few chinks in Djokovic’s clay armor. Tabilo’s high-bouncing lefty forehands gave Novak fits, especially to the backhand. And Novak, unusually passive that day, couldn’t adjust. Now, whether that match was just an off day or a sign of a real tactical edge is the debate.
But mentally, that win gives Tabilo belief—and that’s dangerous. Djokovic will surely come in more locked in this time, but with Monte Carlo’s slower, higher-bouncing clay, Tabilo’s patterns will still work. The past result may not dictate the outcome, but it definitely adds a little more fire to this second-round clash.
Expert Betting Tips
Over 20.5 Total Games @ 1.98 Odds
• Tabilo’s consistency on serve and Djokovic’s slower clay starts suggest at least one long set or even a three-setter.
Tabilo +5.5 Games Handicap @ 1.67 Odds
• Even if Djokovic wins, the model expects a tighter scoreline. Tabilo can easily keep within a single break per set.
Tabilo to Win a Set @ 2.40 Odds
• Given his Rome win and recent form, this is high-value with moderate risk. He's shown he can win a set—or two—against Novak.
Final Word?
This isn’t a gimme for Novak. He’s still the king of control and structure, but Tabilo brings chaos—and confidence. If you’re betting on this one, think twice before writing it off as a straight-sets cruise.
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