The Round of 16 encounter that really gets the WTA 500 event in Tokyo going is McCartney Kessler, the world No. 73 rising American talent, against crafty Russian veteran Daria Kasatkina, currently occupying the No. 9 spot. Kessler enters this match coming off a dominating straight-set victory over Elisabetta Cocciaretto, while Kasatkina is on a 4-match win streak herself after taking the title in Ningbo with a hard-fought victory over fellow Russian Mirra Andreeva.
This sets up a great playing style contrast: the powerhouse baseline game of Kessler versus the tactical finesse and variety employed by Kasatkina. Both enter this match in good form, but the experience and momentum Kasatkina recently gathered may arguably make her the favorite. Still, with Kessler much improved in recent weeks, she might give problems to the Russian if she plays her cards right.
Claim Welcome BonusMcCartney Kessler
McCartney Kessler has been on a rise lately, with a 6-4 record in her last 10 matches. She will be fairly desperate to prove her skill against the higher echelon of opponent. Recently, Kessler's performance has shown the potential for being sure-footed regarding pressure situations, especially her serve stats against Cocciaretto where she saved 72% of break points and converted six of her own.
In this match, the key for McCartney Kessler will be in her serve and aggression. She has to continue serving at a high level, like in her last outing, hitting high percentages on first and second serve. It is worth noting that she was able to win 53% of her first-serve return points and 60% of her second-serve return points against Cocciaretto, showing she can also put pressure on her opponents' serves. Accordingly, against Kasatkina, she needs to try and dominate the shorter rallies and avoid being pulled into longer baseline exchanges, which the Russian will thrive in.
Daria Kasatkina
Daria Kasatkina comes into this match with a top-10 player's confidence, her recent title in Ningbo being just a resumption of affairs after a patch of inconsistency earlier in the year. Crafty, defensively talented, and capable of neutering opponents with her intelligent shot-making, Kasatkina is indeed a tough puzzle to solve for any opponent.
Kasatkina, however, has a tangible strategy in sight: to prolong the rallies and capitalize on Kessler's periodic lapses in consistency. Due to Kessler's aggressive approach, Kasatkina will be targeting his back foot through her defensive skills, movement, and wide array of shots. Kasatkina's return game-her capability to handle second serves particularly-will be important in nullifying Kessler's first-strike tennis. Watch her mix up the pace, throw in some slices and test out Kessler's often-vulnerable second serve, which fetched her just 45% of points in her previous match.
Expert Betting Tips
Much of this match will likely rest on Kessler's ability to dictate with her serve and forehand, while Kasatkina looks to wear her opponent down, extending rallies and eliciting errors. If Kessler can keep the unforced errors low and continue to return effectively, she does have a chance of troubling Kasatkina. The variety and defensive capabilities of the Russian, however, should be enough to enable her to take control of the tempo and outmaneuver Kessler in the critical stages.
Kessler will have her moments early in the match, but Kasatkina's ability to adapt mid-match tactics and solve problems on the court will prove superior.
- Daria Kasatkina Wins & Over 18.5 Games @ 2.08 Odds
- Daria Kasatkina (-3.5) Games Handicap @ 1.78 Odds
- Daria Kasatkina Wins 2-1 @ 3.75 Odds
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