Jordan Thompson vs Ugo Humbert Prediction: Clash of Styles as Thompson Aims for a Historic Upset against the In-Form Humbert

The headlining acts of the ATP 1000 Paris Masters quarterfinal action come in the form of 28th-ranked Australian Jordan Thompson versus 18th seed Frenchman Ugo Humbert. Both players enter this match with some momentum, as Thompson is on a three-match winning streak and Humbert presently holds a hard-fought victory over Carlos Alcaraz. His head-to-head stands at 2-0 in favor of Thompson, but with the Frenchman backed by Parisian fans and fresh from a top-10 scalp, this has the makings of a classic. Let's break down some of the dynamics that could define the match and where value betting opportunities might emerge.

Match Preview

With both Thompson and Humbert entering the match riding three-match win streaks, styles are contrasted tactically: Thompson's all-court versatility saw him record a convincing 7-5, 7-6 victory against Adrian Mannarino. By contrast, Humbert dug deep to eke out a tense 2-1 win over Alcaraz that showed his form and confidence of late. The indoor hard nature of the surface will most certainly favor Humbert's precise shot-making, but one also cannot count out Thompson's mental toughness and efficiency in case Humbert blows his lid in high-pressure moments.

Tactical Approach

The game of Thompson has been more calculated and serve-oriented in recent times. With a first-serve success rate of 57%, along with a good capability to win 83% of his points when he does so, he is kept in control of rallies. He must therefore increasingly focus on second-serve returns against Humbert and make much of any minor lapse of Humbert into inaccurate second serves.

As a lefty, Humbert presents different problems on the indoor surface. His aggressive baseline game, particularly with the backhand cross-court, will be going after Thompson's forehand. A further positive for Humbert was the consistency in long rallies, hitting 93% of his second serves during his last match. Another avenue Humbert might look to is trying to pin Thompson to his backhand corner, which opens up a forehand winner to finish the point.

Expert Betting Tips

Coming in with Humbert's home advantage, form in Paris, and adaptability on the surface, he comes into this match as the favorite. During this tournament, he has grown considerably stronger in the key moments of such tight matches and proved it with his victory over the high-ranked Alcaraz a few rounds ago.

Considering Thompson's form of late, he's unlikely to get blown out and first serve stats have been strong, leaning towards a tight three-setter. With both in great form, the best value bet is a Humbert 2-1 win.

With both competitors at the top of their game, and a very expected close encounter, this quarterfinal is going to go over with Humbert's ability to squeeze out tight sets and Thompson's grit in tiebreaks.

• Over 22 Games @ 1.61 Odds
• Ugo Humbert Wins (-3.5) Games Handicap @ 1.87 Odds
• Ugo Humbert Wins 2-1 @ 3.50 Odds