An Italy-Spain final, pitting Jannik Sinner-ATP No. 1-against Spain's Carlos Alcaraz-ATP No. 2-in the final of the Six Kings Slam exhibition, is a promise to be a feast to tennis enthusiasts all over the world. Of course, the scheduled match on 19 October 2024, was under promise to be one between two of the brightest young lights in tennis. While both have ruled the circuit this season, the final also serves as a key opportunity for Sinner to further consolidate his top position, with Alcaraz keen to drive home his supremacy after convincingly winning against Rafael Nadal in the semifinals.
Over the past years, the two have developed an intense rivalry as Alcaraz leads the head-to-head 7-4. Their last meeting at the ATP 500 Beijing final was a high-intensity three-setter match in which Alcaraz outclassed Sinner 2-1. This time, both come into the final after brilliant performances.
Claim Welcome BonusJannik Sinner (Italy ATP #1)
Jannik Sinner comes into this final in the form of his life, 9-1 in his last 10, including a thrilling three-set win over Novak Djokovic in the semifinal. The powerful Italian game from the baseline, supported by his relentless aggression and improved net play, has made him an aggressive force to be reconnoitered on all surfaces. His mental strength was full on display during the comeback against Djokovic, particularly in the second set tiebreak that showed he never lost his cool at any moment in time.
The Sinner game is predicated on controlling play from the baseline. His flat, incisive groundstrokes-especially off his forehand side-enable him to keep his opponents on their heels. Against the in-form Alcaraz, Sinner will have to hope his serve, a second serve in particular that has often been his Achilles heel, holds up. His ability to win points on his second serve-81% in his last match-will be crucial, particularly against such an aggressive returner as Alcaraz. Sinner will also need to raise his break-point conversion of 50% and seek to attack the Alcaraz second serve at every opportunity.
Carlos Alcaraz (Spain ATP #2)
Coming into this match, Carlos Alcaraz faces an opponent after beating Rafael Nadal in straight sets, 6-3, 6-3, and dismantling the 22-time Grand Slam champion. Alcaraz is a young whirlwind who possesses an all-around game: powerful groundstrokes, deft touch at the net, and an uncanny ability to change the tempo that keeps opponents guessing. Alcaraz comes into the final with a two-match win streak, having taken four straight sets, and he should be feeling quite confident.
Most probably, Alcaraz will mix up his play to disrupt Sinner's rhythm. He will be able to inject pace with his forehand and find acute angles, which will extend Sinner. Alcaraz will also look for well-timed drop shots to bring Sinner to the net, something with which Sinner has looked vulnerable in the past. It could be that the Alcaraz return game provides the critical difference-if he is able to neutralize the Sinner serve early, he will hold a big advantage. The fact that he won 66% of second-serve return points in the last match might prove decisive.
Expert Betting Tips
Of their past 11 matches, Alcaraz leads the head-to-head series 7-4, proof that both opponents have been evenly matched. They played each other earlier this month in the ATP 500 Beijing final, which Alcaraz won in three. He has beaten Sinner four times but has taken the last two, so he will have the psychological edge going into this final.
Curiously, most of their meetings have been closely contested affairs, with both players rising to most of the long, draining rallies and tight moments. Sinner's last victory over Alcaraz came at the 2023 Miami Open in straight sets. Since then, however, Alcaraz has continually found ways to outlast Sinner in the key moments, which perhaps signals that the Spaniard may hold the edge mentally.
This final is turning out to be a nail-biting contest between the two evenly matched players. Both Sinner and Alcaraz were in incredible form and mental toughness in their recent matches; the outcome may come down to small margins. Let's break down three possible outcomes based on current form and tactical nuances.
- Over 22.5 Games @ 1.69 Odds
- Total 3 Sets @ 2.29 Odds
- Jannik Sinner Win @ 1.80 Odds
Other predictions
