Jan-Lennard Struff, ranked 40 in the ATP, plays against Alex de Minaur, ranked 9 in the ATP, on October 22, 2024, in the round of 32 of the Vienna ATP 500 event. Both players come into this match with contrasting form, as is evident from the differing fortunes each has experienced through his season so far. As one of the big-serving and aggressive baseliners, Struff wants to put a halt to his three-match losing streak. Meanwhile, de Minaur hopes to recover from his surprise loss at Antwerp quarterfinals. Down 4-2 in his head-to-head with de Minaur, Struff will have to raise his level to disturb the game of de Minaur, which has been solid and defensively strong.
Grab Welcome BonusJan-Lennard Struff
The big-hitting German has found life difficult lately, losing his last three matches, including that heartbreaker of a five-set defeat to Laslo Djere in the US Open first round. While he flashed brilliance with 11 aces in that match, his inconsistency on serve-20 double faults and just a 53% first serve percentage-has been his undoing. Much of Struff's aggressive game rests on his strong first serve, which can wreak havoc on opponents when it clicks, but his second serve and return game have left much to be desired.
The key for Jan-Lennard Struff will be to dominate with serve and forehand. Much of Struff's power allows him to dictate points from the baseline, so if he can continue above a first-serve percentage of 60%, then he will more than likely disrupt de Minaur's rhythm. Struff also needs to cut down on the double faults while bettering his second-serve win rate, which dropped to just 32% in his last outing. Defensively, Struff has to raise his level of return by being aggressive towards De Minaur's second serve, usually very erratic.
Alex de Minaur
Famed for his dogged defending and exemplary coverage of the court, de Minaur has enjoyed a pretty brilliant campaign so far, with seven wins in his last 10 matches. The recent loss against Hugo Gaston in Antwerp did raise a question or two regarding his conversion rate of break points under pressure. That match, De Minaur was solid on first-serve percentage and second-serve win rate, but perhaps the conversion rate on break points - 2 of 7 - and struggles on second-serve returns where he won just 43% of the points is where Struff will look to try to exploit.
But the key in this match for Alex de Minaur will be how well he can soak up Struff's power and transition from defense to offense. De Minaur is a great mover on the court and can chase down shots that will extend the rallies. This could frustrate Struff into committing more unforced errors. The serving, particularly the second serve, has been really good of late for De Minaur, so he will look to take time away from Struff with deep, piercing returns. The key to it all for de Minaur will be his better conversion of break-point opportunities and also capitalizing on a weaker second serve that will most likely be served up from Struff.
Expert Betting Tips
De Minaur leads their head-to-head 4-2, including a recent victory at the 2024 French Open, where de Minaur came back from a set down to win 4-6, 6-4, 6-3, 6-3. The two victories by Struff came on faster surfaces, and one might think that his chances are better on the indoor hard courts of Vienna. Yet, de Minaur's consistent ability to extend the rallies and counter-punch has generally given him the upper hand.
Undeniably powerful, Struff's form and serving inconsistencies of late can make him vulnerable against a player like de Minaur, who is particularly good at neutering the big hitters. De Minaur will likely get the benefit from his defensive skills and second serve exploitation. The Vienna fast courts will put much emphasis on Struff's serve, and if he fails to find consistency, the superior movement and counter-punch of de Minaur should prevail.
- Alex de Minaur Wins & Over 18.5 Games @ 1.85 Odds
- Alex de Minaur (-3.5) Games Handicap @ 1.73 Odds
- Alex de Minaur Wins 2-0 @ 2.00 Odds
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