World No. 2 Iga Swiatek is facing off against No. 9 Daria Kasatkina as the WTA Finals' Group B comes down to a clash of titans. Both players, with eyes on the knockout stages, will find Round 3 testing, tactically and psychologically. Iga Swiatek was an excellent big-match player in this regard as she had sought a return to form after her bruising defeat at the hands of Coco Gauff. Kasatkina is an alternate, replacing the withdrawn Jessica Pegula, trying to make the most of this golden opportunity against one of the tour's top players. Certainly, much will be at stake between the two in Cancun, as each will want to claim her stake in the tournament.
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In the hardcourt contest to come, Swiatek and Kasatkina bring into play their contrasting styles and skill sets. Swiatek has built a penchant for aggressive baseline play and the ability to time rallies; Kasatkina touts an intricate, defensive counterpunching style with excellent court coverage. When both met at the 2022 WTA Finals, Swiatek won in straight sets to underline her recent supremacy in this head-to-head. With Kasatkina joining at the last minute, the Russian will try to pull the surprise and, most importantly, use that underdog position to her advantage.
Swiatek leads the head-to-head 5-1, having won five in a row against Kasatkina, including three on hard outdoors. This consistency speaks to a bump in style and recent form, though Kasatkina has repeatedly been resilient, often forcing Swiatek into longer rallies in their past meetings. The last time they met, it was at the WTA Finals, and Swiatek made her way through with a straight-set win that sealed the lead for her in this series.
Tactical Approach
Swiatek's game plan will be about early aggression, using her heavy topspin forehand to push Kasatkina behind. To that end, her serve placement and consistency-which were wobbly during the match with Gauff-will be very important to avoid long rallies, which can go Kasatkina's way. Swiatek would like to capitalize on Kasatkina's first-serve points won percentage of 50% in her last match.
Whereas Kasatkina would like to take away Swiatek's power by lengthening the rallies and making angles that challenge the Pole's footwork and balance, Kasatkina's tactical patience and variation in play could disrupt Swiatek's rhythm. Her success rate on second-serve returns was 64% in her last outing, a success rate that would be extremely important, considering the slightest dip in Swiatek's serve.
Expert Betting Tips
While Swiatek had a tough fight getting back in the match against Krejcikova in Round 1, her subsequent loss to Gauff really brought into light a few vulnerabilities: inconsistencies in her serving and in playing under pressure. First-serve percentage will, for the most part, be key in preventing her opponent from taking advantage of weaker second serves, something that Gauff managed to capitalize on. Also crucial was the break-point conversion rate: Swiatek converted only two breaks against Gauff despite multiple chances.
Coming in with fresh legs, Kasatkina may have an edge in motivation and adaptability coming in as an alternate. Kasatkina was only recently beaten in Tokyo, but she was resilient and adapting well from the baseline. What Kasatkina needs most to be able to challenge Swiatek is to pay close attention to her return game, considering she converted 64% of second-serve return points in her last outing. Kasatkina's variation in spin and placement will be crucial in trying to draw Swiatek into extended rallies.
- Over 18.5 Games @ 1.61 Odds
- Over 19.5 Games @ 1.84 Odds
- Iga Swiatek Wins 2-0 @ 1.50 Odds
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