01/11/2024, 17:30
Paris, France
Hardcourt Indoor
This highly-anticipated ATP 1000 Paris Quarterfinal pits Holger Rune against Alex de Minaur in what is set to be a display of different styles and tactical intensity. Actually, going into this match both players are in very similar recent form: each had a 7-3 record in the last ten and on a three-match win streak. That showdown pits Rune's aggressive baseline power against the relentless speed and precision of de Minaur as they make their ways onto the indoor hard court in Paris, setting up a very compelling duel between two of the most promising young stars on the ATP. The head-to-head series currently stands at 2-2, with de Minaur having won their last encounter at the 2023 ATP London Semifinals, adding even more intrigue to this match.
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Holger Rune comes into this match fresh from the grueling 2-1 win over Arthur Cazaux, where he served well with 14 aces, but his inconsistency dropped to 5 double faults. A 65% first serve and 83% second serve won; indeed, he has become reliable in his service game. Aggressive baseline game whence he won 72% of his points on first serve. The only worrying aspect of Rune's game was indeed the break-point conversion, for which he converted just 3 out of his chances.
Alex de Minaur comes on court with the momentum of a hard-fought win against Jack Draper. Flawless in defense and relentlessly consistent, de Minaur did a great job with second-serve percentage, taking home 97% of his points served second, the statistic which might be pivotal in facing Rune's aggressive returns. While his first-serve percentage was low at 49%, he still won 79% of his first serve points, capitalizing on his excellent court coverage to win crucial points. With a setting like this for a tight match, the contrast in their playing styles becomes apparent.
Tactical Approach
A likely game plan from Rune to accomplish this will be to stay aggressive with the groundstrokes, in addition to a strong serve. He might attempt to dictate points and go for high-risk winners, reaping the benefits of de Minaur's less aggressive baseline. Rune's capabilities at the baseline, with 31% return points on the first serve and 46% on the second, indicate that he can force de Minaur into many defensive positions. He will need to cut down on the unforced errors and take most of his break-point opportunities to see off plucky de Minaur.
With his speed and deft touch, de Minaur will be trying to extend the rallies and make Rune's aggressiveness work against him. The 61% return points he had against Rune's second serve indicate that he can engage Rune in some extended rallies that break down his opponent's rhythm and force errors. Returning well will be one of the keys to the match since de Minaur is going to try to nullify Rune's power and move into offense at times.
Expert Betting Tips
The fact that the total games go over 22.5 is likely because both players enter the match in great shape and are fully capable of sustaining very long rallies. Rune's tendency to fluctuate between aggressive shots that result in winners and unforced errors may prolong sets, while on the other side, de Minaur's defensives often lead to tight sets and make three sets more likely.
Rune's strong start and high first-serve effectiveness give him a good shot of taking the first set. His recent form has shown that he's usually strong early in the sets when he can maximize his aggressive baseline play.
Despite the powerful start of Rune, de Minaur's consistency-a lot from the return-may have been enough to outlast Rune over three sets. It is his capability to retrieve and force errors that will be critical, especially if this match goes to a final set where de Minaur's fitness and mental toughness may make the difference.
- Over 22 Games @ 1.6 Odds
- Holger Rune Wins First Set @ 1.99 Odds
- Alex de Minaur Wins @ 1.66 Odds
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