It will be Italy's emergent talent Flavio Cobolli against the persistent Alex de Minaur of Australia in the ATP 500 Vienna Round of 16 for 2024. Both players will enter the match riding on recent successes, though at different ends of style. With his solid baseline game and mental strength, Cobolli, ATP 31, has been in great form, while on the other hand, De Minaur, ATP 10, has built a career off of taking defense and turning it into offense using pure speed and consistency. The last time they met, De Minaur cruised to a straight-set win at the 2024 Australian Open. But this time, things could be different, as throughout the season, both have come a long way.
De Minaur leads 1-0 in the head-to-head, havig come out on top in their only previous meeting at the 2024 Australian Open, where he claimed a dominant straight-sets win. That result may perhaps give him the psychological edge, but the form Cobolli has gained over the season probably means this might be a bit closer.
Claim Welcome BonusFlavio Cobolli
Coming into this match, Cobolli has a 6-4 record in his last ten matches, and he comes fresh from a straight-set victory over Alejandro Davidovich Fokina. His ability to dictate with the first serve-in his last match, 70%-and second serve-100% points won-is key in his game. He'll hope to keep those numbers going in order to be competitive against De Minaur, whose counterpunching game does rely on his opponents' lapses in serving consistency.
For Cobolli, it is going to be all about maintaining a high ratio of first-serve percentage and bossing with his baseline game. He will look at drawing De Minaur into longer rallies by setting up aggressive forehands with his 70% first-serve success rate. The 100% break-point save rate against Davidovich Fokina suggests some mental toughness, but De Minaur will press him more consistently on returns. He will also have to work on the break-point conversion for the Italian, which was a mere 28% in his last match.
Alex de Minaur
No. 10-ranked De Minaur has shown great form of late, recording a 7-3 mark over his last ten. He struggled at times in his last match with Jan-Lennard Struff, dropping a set, but it was tough not to be impressed with his fight and how he covered the court. He'll need to improve on the serving percentage that fell to 47 percent against Struff, but he's always a formidable foe for Cobolli as long as his foot speed and returning continue to hold to form.
De Minaur will want to work on his first-serve percentage, which was an abysmal 47% against Struff. Still, his agility brings shots that appear for all money lost causes, and he turns defence into offence almost unimaginably well. He will look at Cobolli's second serve as a time to pounce and try to break down his rhythm. Converting break-point opportunities will be on the Australian's mind, having managed four against Struff and needing to do that again when facing the service games of Cobolli. His solidity during long rallies and ability to force errors will again be paramount in trying to counter the Italian's aggressive baseline play.
Expert Betting Tips
Form player, Cobolli played with confidence while handling Davidovich Fokina and his statistics reflect a growing maturity to his game. The 100% second-serve points won and break points saved really catch the eye. This is a step up in class. The relentless defence will already be an issue, but adding in his ability to attack short balls if the Italian isn't at his best makes De Minaur a tough challenge.
That would make breaking De Minaur's serve and holding his own against the constant pressure that the Aussie places on his opponents' serves the most important things for Cobolli. De Minaur's 54% success rate on second serves against Struff was not exactly convincing, and he could give Cobolli a chance or two to attack. However, his return game-56% on second-serve returns-means Cobolli will probably be made to stay on the back foot.
- Alex de Minaur Wins & Over 19.5 Games @ 1.96 Odds
- Over 21.5 Games @ 1.72 Odds
- Alex de Minaur Wins 2-1 @ 3.50 Odds
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