The interesting encounter in Basel, the ATP 500 tournament, is in the Round of 32, as Canadian Felix Auger-Aliassime, ranked ATP 19, will play against Sebastian Baez of Argentina, who is ATP 26. Both are coming into this match with a series of inconsistent performances to find their top form. This is a chance for Auger-Aliassime to nail his spot in the later stages of the season, while Baez is eager to end a four-match losing streak. The hardcourts of Basel will most likely be tailored for powerful serving and aggressive baseline play-a style expected to suit Auger-Aliassime-but the grinding baseline game of Baez can't be disregarded. With that in mind, let's get into the details of this matchup and what both players need to do in order to advance.
Claim Welcome BonusFelix Augar-Aliassime
Felix Auger-Aliassime enters this match 5-5 in his last ten, fresh off of a grueling loss to Roberto Bautista Agut in the quarterfinals of the ATP Antwerp. Even though Felix fired 19 aces and his serve was clicking for much of the match, he was unable to find a way to win, falling in a final-set tiebreak. His recent form suggests that he is playing rather inconsistently, but his weapons on a fast indoor surface such as Basel's hardcourt make him a player to be scared of.
Felix's game is based around his explosive serve and aggressive baseline play. His 19 aces against *** in the last match just showed how hegemonial he could be when he finds his rhythm on serve. He'll want to dictate with his serves, going for high first-serve percentages, then using his big forehand to finish off the point. With that said, the 67% first serve that Auger-Aliassime had in his last match is crucial for Basel, as this is one of those surfaces where you want to get quick points off of your serve. He needs not to waste unnecessary unforced errors, most especially when in long rallies, where Baez may be ahead. Another thing he must work on is second-serve points; winning only 44% in Antwerp puts him in vulnerable positions whenever his first serve is not effective.
Sebastian Baez
While Sebastian Baez has been on the wrong foot lately, getting just 3W and 7L in the last 10 matches, he is on a losing streak of four in a row. In the last match, he was defeated by Zizou Bergs in Antwerp, where his serve was in a decent condition: he had just 1 ace and committed 4 double faults. Baez's strengths lay in rallying and moving the opponents around, but he has often looked at a disadvantage on faster courts due to a lack of firepower against big servers such as Auger-Aliassime. Indeed, this match is very important for the Argentine if he doesn't want to see the streak prolong.
Sebastian Baez is one of those players who always tries to be consistent and counterpunch on the return game, which really shines whenever the surface is slower, like clay. However, he often could not enforce his game on faster indoor hard courts. His main aim is going to be neutralizing Felix's serve and making him play long rallies to exploit any inconsistency in Auger-Aliassime's groundstrokes. He'll also have to lift his serving, where the 53% first-serve points won in his last match doesn't leave much room for error against a player as aggressive as Felix. Baez will also have to improve his second serve return, where 45% points won in Antwerp well and truly was a weakness here.
Expert Betting Tips
Given their previous meeting and a difference in form, Auger-Aliassime comes into this match as the clear favorite. His aggressive serve and powerful baseline game are tailor-made for the fast conditions here in Basel, and Baez's current form—highlighted by his four-match losing streak—suggests he may be ill-equipped to handle the intensity of Felix. Felix's also recent record of 19 aces in a match gives him a big leg up on serve, where Baez is very unlikely to make anything. Therefore, my first and most confident prediction is that Felix Auger-Aliassime wins this match.
Given the indoor hardcourt surface and their head-to-head record, a win in straight sets from Felix is all but a given. Felix dominated the tempo from start to finish in his Davis Cup match against Baez, taking the encounter in straight sets. While tenacious, Baez has not had much luck on the quicker surfaces and does not possess enough firepower to push Felix beyond a long match. A score of 2-0 for Auger-Aliassime is very likely, therefore.
One of the biggest weapons in the match is the serve of Felix, and he showcased that with 19 aces in his last match against Bautista Agut. Basel's indoor hardcourts are friendly for the big servers, as already well-known. Therefore, the ability to amass aces should shine here as well for Auger-Aliassime. As expected, Felix will comfortably get more than 10 aces in this match since Baez is a far less aggressive returner compared to Bautista Agut.
- Felix Augar-Aliassime Win & Under 21.5 Games @ 1.63 Odds
- Under 20.5 Games @ 1.75 Odds
- Felix Augar-Aliassime (-4.5) Games Handicap @ 1.61 Odds
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