The WTA 500 Tokyo Round of 16 match pits Russian Diana Shnaider (WTA 16) against Bulgaria's Viktoriya Tomova (WTA 49) in what shapes up to be a fascinating contrast of styles. Both players have had somewhat uneven results over the last stretch of time, as evidenced by identical 5-5 marks in their last 10 matches. Still, their roads to this meeting have demonstrated some important contrasts between the two players. While Shnaider is indeed the younger and higher-ranked player, she has struggled with a great deal of inconsistency while Tomova hopes to carry momentum from her upset win over Veronika Kudermetova. It could mark a launching point for either player to go deep in this prestigious event.
Claim Welcome BonusDiana Shnaider
Diana Shnaider comes into this match after an early Round of 32 exit in the WTA Ningbo tournament, losing to Spanish world number one Paula Badosa in a three-set battle 6-4, 3-6, 3-6. After a promising start, Shnaider's game fell apart as the game went along, ill-portrayed by 6 double faults and a first serve percentage of 61%. She has lost her last three matches, raising questions about the state of her form, though when in position to wield her aggressive baseline game, she is still a force.
Success in this match for Shnaider will be all about serving more consistently and cutting out the unforced errors that have haunted her of late. When on song, the power from the baseline can be overwhelming, but those 6 double faults and a low break-point conversion of 28% against Badosa showed she has to sharpen her mental game and shot selection when it comes to the important points. Furthermore, the 20% first-serve return points that Shnaider realized in her last match was below par, and she is in dire need of doing something different with the return game if she is to push Tomova's serve from the very beginning.
Viktoriya Tomova
Meanwhile, Viktoriya Tomova will head into the match with fairly good confidence, having beat Veronika Kudermetova in straight sets 7-6, 6-3 in her last outing. There was marked contrast in serving dependability between Tomova and Shnaider, as the former won an impressive 68% of first serve and 91% of second serve points to pip her opponent ahead in the tight moments. The mental toughness of Tomova at key moments, highlighted when she converted 4 break points, will be crucial if she is to profit from Shnaider's vulnerability on serve.
Where Tomova will look to try to attempt, on the other hand, is pulling Shnaider into longer rallies where she can utilize her more solid defense and take advantage of the Russian inconsistency. The fact that Tomova won 45% of first-serve return points and 50% of second-serve return points in her last match suggests that she may capitalize on any lapses in Shnaider's service game. Secondly, the great performance with the second serve-played 91% of the points-will show her capability to be competitive even when she is not landing a first serve, which could be very important against Shnaider's return struggles.
Expert Betting Tips
Though Shnaider leads their head-to-head 1-0, recent form gives several question marks over whether she will be able to see this one through. Three successive defeats indicate some frailties that Tomova - fresh off of a win over Kudermetova - should look to probe. The consistent work from the first serve and in rallies from Tomova should see her through here, especially if Shnaider stays vulnerable on serve and keeps making poor decisions throughout.
In fact, with recent form to be considered for both contestants, and also knowing that inconsistencies can creep in for Shnaider, this match could still be close. Tomova has sometimes managed to drain her opponents in very, very long rallies, while flawed Shnaider will still be able to make things tough for the Bulgarian once she finds a rhythm. Expect this to go the distance.
Both players have been involved in matches with multiple service breaks in recent times. Shnaider's poor break-point conversion and the high return-point percentages for Tomova further indicate that service breaks will play an important part in this match. Given that Shnaider is prone to double faults and has only a 58% success rate on first-serve points, the Bulgarian will likely make full use of her chances.
- Viktoriya Tomova (+5) Games Handicap @ 1.614 Odds
- Viktoriya Tomova (+1.5) Sets Handicap @ 1.80 Odds
- Viktoriya Tomova Wins @ 3.20 Odds
Other predictions
