The action in round two of Group A in the ATP Tour Finals sees Daniil Medvedev face Alex de Minaur in what is shaping up to be a war of wits and nerves. Both men went down tight matches as Medvedev was beaten by Taylor Fritz, while de Minaur fell to Jannik Sinner. For them now, the battle to stay alive in the tournament might determine 2024 for them. The indoor hard-court battle here in Turin comes with contrasting styles of play and a past rivalry that has tilted toward Medvedev.
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Medvedev and de Minaur also come into this encounter with contrasting game styles and a few issues of their own over the last couple of weeks. The strategic baseline player with an aggressive counterpunching game, Medvedev has not been in rhythm yet this tournament and lost 4-6, 3-6 to Fritz in the first round. His opponent, de Minaur, is known for his relentless speed and defensive skills and also found life tough in his opener against Sinner, losing 6-3, 6-4. The teams are desperate for a win, keeping semifinal chances in their hands, thereby intensifying the momentum of an already high-staked match.
That is a 6-3 head-to-head series in his favor and gives him a slight psychological edge. The curious thing about the head-to-head statistics is that Medvedev has taken down the last three matches against de Minaur on outdoor hard courts, as he can be very adaptable against the pace of de Minaur. Still, de Minaur has shown the ability to at least test Medvedev, especially when he is on quicker surfaces where quick feet make even top-level players uncomfortable.
Tactical Approach
Daniil Medvedev: Most probably, Medvedev will try to push de Minaur back with his usual baseline control and deep positioning. A strong first servicer, patient guy, he will try to dictate what happens in points while using his length to disrupt de Minaur's rhythm. His strengths are producing aces-8 in his opening match-and first-serve points won, at 77%, while his weakness is on the second serve, at only 27%. Medvedev should look to convert break points frequently and never give de Minaur even chances where de Minaur is playing less powerfully.
Alex de Minaur: The speed at which De Minaur covers the court will be a major feature of his approach, seeking depth quickly and making agile returns. His serve percentage on second serve is sound at 89%, but the fact that he secures only 37% of such points means he has to take control more. With sharp angles and low shots, de Minaur could keep Medvedev going. To somewhat counter Medvedev's reach, de Minaur can add some net play into his game using his anticipation and reaction time to get Medvedev out of his baseline comfort zone.
Expert Betting Tips
Medvedev relies on strong baseline play and powerful serving, but inconsistency off the second serve and an inability to have much success in the return games were glaring problems in his opener. He was unable to take either of his break points against Fritz, also having success on just 19% of first-serve return points. Still, these results look a far cry from applying against de Minaur, given his recent record against the Australian. In case Medvedev cuts down the number of double faults to less than 8, as in the last match, and raises his break point conversion rate, he has a good chance of overwhelming de Minaur.
Quickness might make De Minaur such an opponent, whereas his baseline game is not as deep or weighted that usually creates the most significant issue for Medvedev. This high percentage of second serves put into play by De Minaur reflects both the dependability of his serve but also the vulnerability in longer baseline exchanges. In order to succeed, De Minaur needs to ramp up the aggression - especially in those return games that saw him take only 18% of first-serve return points against Sinner. Expect de Minaur to mix in drop shots and fast approaches forward to net, hoping to short-circuit extended rallies and deny a rhythm to Medvedev.
- Under 24.5 Games @ 1.6 Odds
- Daniil Medvedev Wins @ 1.67 Odds
- Total Sets - 2 @ 1.66 Odds
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