An interesting encounter in the Round of 16 at the ATP 250 Metz Open pits France's Benjamin Bonzi against Norway's Casper Ruud. Bonzi, currently ranked 124th in the world, has been on an incredible 9-1 strike in his last ten matches, sometimes showing consistent and sharp form. On the other hand, Ruud, despite a much higher ranking at ATP No. 7, has struggled in recent weeks with only two wins in his last ten matches. This sets up the in-form underdog against the top-seeded player fighting to get his rhythm.
This is going to be the first meeting between the two; that means a completely new matchup, both guys having to figure each other out while the match is in process. The unfamiliarity with Ruud's high-spin groundstrokes may be a problem for Bonzi, knowing how resilient Ruud is and how he always manages to change during the match.
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The collision of Bonzi and Ruud will indeed be a tactical one as it will be on the indoor hard courts of Metz. Bonzi, having the support of the locals and coming into this match with a great run of form, had straight-set success over Roberto Bautista Agut and enjoyed some real firepower in his serving game, clocking up 9 aces and a fine 81% of first-serve points won. Ruud enters with question marks over his current form after he lost his last match to Jordan Thompson, but he does have the experience and ranking advantage that might prove telling at crucial moments.
Tactical Approach
The tactical edge for Bonzi will be his strong serving game and current form on second serve; he won 88% on second serves in the last match. He will thus look to shorten the points and stay in control with his serve game throughout, which could help him avoid getting into too much baseline grinding, where Ruud excels. But Ruud would nullify Bonzi's offense by prolonging the rallies and pushing him onto his backhand, where he has been shown to be pretty vulnerable at times. If he can get his rhythm on serve back, and reduces his break-point conversion against him, then he may give Bonzi more problems in crucial moments.
Expert Betting Tips
Bonzi had some very good recent serve stats, particularly in terms of high percentages won on both first and second serves. The fact that he hit 9 aces to just 3 double faults in his last match indicates his serve is going to be the important part of keeping Ruud, who often proved inconsistent returning first serves effectively, at bay.
Typically, his groundstrokes and movement give him the upper hand during long periods of rallies, but it seems like the Norwegian lost a bit of confidence in his current form. If able to keep points short, Bonzi might negate Ruud's strengths off the baseline, forcing errors when pressure mounted.
With a 9-1 in his last ten matches, Bonzi is on a real high wave as he comes into this having won three in a row. On the other hand, Ruud's recent 2-8 slump perhaps reflects a loss in confidence-most specifically on the return and in break-point situations. That could give Bonzi the slight psychological advantage that might weigh heavily on Ruud's performance, especially with the Metz crowd cheering for the French player.
- Under 25.5 Games @ 1.6 Odds
- Under 23.5 Games @ 1.75 Odds
- Benjamin Bonzi Wins @ 2.09 Odds
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