Aryna Sabalenka vs Marta Kostyuk: Power duel on Madrid clay courts

Belarus
Belarus
Finished
Ukraine
Ukraine
Tennis, WTA 1000, Madrid, Spain, Quarterfinals 
30 April 2025, 21:00
Manolo Santana, Madrid, Spain 
Red Clay Surface 

Raphael George
30 Apr 2025
09:05
Statistics of the month:
17
7
0
70.83%
Statistics
Odds
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Odds 1,33
Bet Type Aryna Sabalenka to win
Bonus 100 EUR
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Aryna Sabalenka vs Marta Kostyuk: Prediction for the Match on April 30, 2025

Prediction for the Tennis match which will take place on April 30. Who will turn out to be stronger? Check the players conditions! Several betting options are available.

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Aryna Sabalenka storms into the Madrid quarterfinals in great form, having most recently played to a match record of WWLWWW. Her last victory came against Peyton Stearns, whom she defeated in straight sets: 6-2, 6-4, the match showing her hard serve and aggressive baseline strokes. She fired 3 aces, committed no double faults, and saved 92% of the breakpoints she faced, a testament to her mental fortitude under pressure. 

Early in the season, Sabalenka triumphed in Brisbane, overcoming the Polina Kudermetova challenge, also known as the final in three sets. It didn't end there; she reached the final of the Australian Open, where she fell short against Madison Keys. It was also her first title at the Miami Open, where she defeated Jessica Pegula in the finals with a score of 7-5, 6-2, proving her status as the best player in the world. 

While she finished second in Porsche Tennis Grand Prix in Stuttgart, losing to Jelena Ostapenko, Sabalenka has certainly cemented her place at the top of women's tennis. Currently, she is on a three-match winning streak, winning her last four sets, indicating performance at her peak as she progresses in Madrid.

Marta Kostyuk has been creating ripples of excitement on the WTA tour with a recent form of LWLWWW. In her last match, she proved her mettle and savvy with a 6-3, 6-2 victory over Anastasia Potapova. The young Ukrainian did not serve any aces but did register three double faults, yet rang up an impressive first serve percentage of 73% and converted five breakpoints, showing that she had managed to find a way to play against her opponent's weaknesses.

Kostyuk faced down injury and flame to battle her way into the quarter-finals: she notched victory against Emma Raducanu 6-4, 2-6, 6-2 after spraining her wrist in warm-up. Kostyuk served up one of the most significant aces of the tournament in her third-round match against Veronika Kudermetova, sending the crowd into a frenzy and adding to a growing list of memorable moments.

Having won three consecutive outings and a total of three sets out of her last matches, Kostyuk currently rides a wave of confidence. The performance she unleashed in Madrid demonstrated she is going to be a serious contender against the higher-ranked competitors and create a dent on the tournament scoreboard.

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Aryna Sabalenka met Marta Kostyuk twice on the WTA Tour and Sabalenka has a record of 2-0 against her. Their most recent match was during the 2023 edition of the French Open. In that match, Sabalenka won convincingly in straight sets, 6-3, 6-2. The Belarusian played an aggressive baseliner game with an all-around superior serve that proved too much for Kostyuk to handle. She struggled countering speed with power from Sabalenka. The other time this pair met, it was the same result to Sabalenka's benefit. Though rising in form and confidence, historical dominance and psychological weights firmly favor the world No. 1 into this quarterfinal match, which many would consider not, but could be one of the most anticipated matches.

  • Surpassing the mark of 80.88%, Aryna Sabalenka's success rate this year is a testament to her continuing high-caliber tennis performance.
  • Marta Kostyuk's 66% of wins on the clay, ever-so-slightly ahead of Sabalenka's 64% on clay, speaks volumes about her comfort and effectiveness on that surface.
  • 64.29% is the break-point-saving rate for Sabalenka lately, again highlighting her strength under pressure.
  • Kostyuk's point-winning percentage in-plane returns has been as high as 39.92, implying that she is negotiating primarily on aggression and will put Sabalenka's serve under severe strain.
  • Sabalenka has, in her recent form, won 51.97% of her second-serve points, which has been an important element in keeping her service games against very good returners like Kostyuk.

As the stage is set for the quarterfinals in Madrid, the battle promises to be an exhilarating contest between Aryna Sabalenka and Marta Kostyuk. Sabalenka's strong baseline game, along with her mental strength, have established her at the top of the WTA rankings. Miami Open title and performance in Stuttgart are testaments to her preparation for the clay-court season.

On the other hand, Kostyuk has reached the last eight because of her fighting spirit and skills coupled with the cunning needed to think outside the box to beat higher-ranked players. Strong prospects on clay and an aggressive return game promise serious problems for Sabalenka.

While Sabalenka enters as the favorite, it looks like it will be a very lively battle judging by the form and spirit of Kostyuk. Tennis fans will rejoice in the energy and strength of rallies, tactical games, and moments of magic from each player.

Below are my betting tips for the match:

🔥 My prediction for the match is Aryna Sabalenka to win with a coefficient of 1.33 odds on 1xbet 

🔥 My betting tip for the match is Over 2.5 sets with a coefficient of 2.75 odds on Bet365

🔥 My main betting tip for the match is Marta Kostyuk to win first set 3.10 odds on Betway 

Odds
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Odds 1,33
Bet Type Aryna Sabalenka to win
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Odds 2,75
Bet Type Over 2.5 sets
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Odds 3,10
Bet Type Marta Kostyuk to win first set
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