Aryna Sabalenka vs Jasmine Paolini: Prediction for the Match on April 20 2025

Belarus
Belarus
Finished
Italy
Italy
Tennis, WTA 500, Stuttgart, Germany, Semifinal
20.04.2025, 15:10
Centre Court, Stuttgart, Germany 
Red Clay Indoor 

Raphael George
20 Apr 2025
04:30
Statistics of the month:
51
32
0
61.45%
Statistics
Odds
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Odds 1,6
Bet Type Aryna Sabalenka to win (-4) Handicap
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Aryna Sabalenka vs Jasmine Paolini: Prediction for the Match on April 20, 2025

Prediction for the Tennis match which will take place on April 20. Who will turn out to be stronger? Check the team conditions! Several betting options are available.

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Aryna Sabalenka, the ace from Belarus, has had sublime form entering the Stuttgart Open semifinals. Sitting on a current winning streak of eight matches and 13 consecutive sets, the harder the court, the better Sabalenka had been. She made light work indeed of the match against Elise Mertens in the last round, winning 6-4, 6-1 as she blasted five aces with no double faults to speak of. Most impressively, Sabalenka achieved a 100 percent first-serve success rate, saving 80 percent of break points. Definitely, some pressure could not shake her!

Sabalenka's progress in the tournament has been fraught with skill and more than a touch of controversy, most notably a disputed line call during her quarterfinal against Elise Mertens which saw her whip out her mobile phone to photograph the ball mark after the umpire refused to review the disputed decision. A warning for unsportsmanlike conduct was issued, but Sabalenka steeled herself into completing the match in short order. An easier passage to the semifinals followed with a walkover in the previous round when Anastasia Potapova withdrew.

Jasmine Paolini, currently ranked sixth by the WTA, showed a great run in the tournament. With a current record of WLWWW, Paolini has won three matches in a row, including a big upset over Gauff, the fourth seed, with a score of 6-4, 6-3. In that match, Paolini maintained her composure and played wisely, converting five break points and not missing any first serves. 

This was the first tournament with Paolini under the guidance of her new coach, Marc López, who is a former Olympic gold medalist and Grand Slam doubles champion. Together, they have plans to build on the impressive season of 2024 that Paolini has had since winning a WTA 1000 title in Dubai, being a finalist at Roland Garros and Wimbledon, and winning an Olympic gold medal in doubles. Her semifinal against Sabalenka will be another stepping stone to strengthening her position among the top players.

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Aryna Sabalenka leads over Jasmine Paolini in their head-to-head 4-2, having won their last three matches. Their last meeting, at the 2025 Miami Open semifinals, saw Sabalenka dispatch Paolini 6-2, 6-2. While Paolini had two early wins in their rivalry, Sabalenka adapted her game increasingly to overpower the Italian with her aggressive baseline and powerful served play. All of her latest victories were in straight sets, thus snapping all odds even to take a good mental edge. The indoor clay surface in Stuttgart may provide some tactical advantage to Paolini.

  • Sabalenka won 81% of her matches during the previous year, and she has triumphed in 73% of her matches in straight sets. With her strong serve and aggressive baseline play, she is hard to defeat.
  • Paolini has shown remarkable improvement, winning 64% of her matches in the past year. Her ability to adapt and counter aggressive players has been a key factor in her recent successes.
  • The Stuttgart Open takes the stage at the indoor clay courts, which might slightly diminish the power of Sabalenka, and here would be Paolini's most probable advantage if she could prolong rallies and open up some angles.
  • Sabalenka should have a mental advantage over Paolini, having eventually defeated her on the head-to-head count, particularly in an easy straight-set Miami win.
  • This match should turn out to be a match won in straight sets, leaning more towards Sabalenka taking this one at two.

As we build up to what many consider a heavyweight weight semi-final clash here, the differences in style pitting Aryna Sabalenka and Jasmine Paolini will be put on full display: raw power versus perfect finesse. Sabalenka indeed has the power-hitter of aggressiveness from the baselines and an artillery of devastating serves to put on display; while Paolini relies entirely on that dexterity combined with stored precision and tactical shifts within the court. The girls at the moment are both at peak form and make it sound pretty even on paper. But in the case of history and recent performances, the balance tilts slightly in favor of Sabalenka. That says, in general, with all of her experiences around tense matches, she's the marginal favorite to enter the finals; it might also not be impossible to have an upset: because a little swing in the match might change the rival's expectations. Our 3 main betting tips are: 

🥎 Match Prediction 1: Aryna Sabalenka to win (-4) Handicap 

🥎 Match Prediction 2: Sabalenka to win in straight sets (2-0)

🥎 Match Prediction 3: Under 20.5 games in the match

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Bet Type Aryna Sabalenka to win (-4) Handicap
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Odds 1,7
Bet Type Sabalenka to win in straight sets (2-0)
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