Islam Makhachev (Russia) vs Thiago Moises (Brazil)
UFC Apex, Las Vegas. USA
18.07.2021.
Islam Makhachev will have the first fight of his professional career in the main event of the UFC Fight Night on July 18. It's already a step forward, although his opponent - Thiago Moises is only in 14th place in the UFC rankings.
Islam Makhachev: after this fight, it seems that he will face a strong opponent
For many years Islam has been predicted as Khabib's heir and champion of the lightweight division, but we are still here. I cannot organize a fight with a really strong fighter to assess the real level of Makhachev. And meanwhile, he is confidently winning everyone he has fought against.
The Russian, 29, has 19 wins (4 by KO, 7 by TKO) and one TKO loss, which he suffered in October 2015, in the first round by Adriano Martins at the UFC 192 tournament. Thus, Islam goes on a streak of seven wins in a row, only Charles Oliveira has more in the lightweight division (except that the Brazilian has had 8 winning fights in 2.5 years, while Islam has had almost 5 years).
In his last fight, Makhachev defeated the American Drew Dober at UFC 259. The Russian masterfully smothered his opponent in the third round with an uppercut and scored his seventh straight victory after a year and a half of downtime. Islam crushed his opponent in the ground, not giving him a chance to fight in the clinch. Dober was on a three-fight winning streak and looked like a serious contender, but his only real opponent to lose to was Beneil Dariush, who gave the American an armbar. Dober proved to be a mediocre puncher, who turns into an amoeba when a strong fighter is in front of him.
I'm excited because this is my first fight in the main event at the UFC. Five rounds is good. Before they give me a title fight, I have to fight five rounds more than once. I've got to get a feel for them. That's why when they called me and asked me if I wanted to fight five rounds, I said sure. I always train hard, so five rounds don’t matter. After beating Moises, I think there will be some top-five opponents. Maybe Rafael Dos Anjos or Tony Ferguson. I was supposed to fight Dos Anjos in Abu Dhabi, but he got coronavirus. And then I came to Vegas and got an infection. We were supposed to fight, but maybe it will happen later
Thiago Moises: very strong medium class
Thiago Moises is on a three-fight winning streak, but he's hardly a contender for high rankings. He's a tough fighter, of course, well-trained, with spirit, but no more than that - he can't become a real star. Nevertheless, number 14 in the rating is a very high level.
The 26-year-old Brazilian has 14 wins (2 by KO, 5 by submission) and 4 losses (all by judges' decisions) in his pro record.
I don't care about the fact that there's a lot of hype around Islam. Every day I try to get better as a fighter and as a person. I'll go into the cage and give it my best. I'm going to press him from the start. I anticipate that under the barrage of my punches he will back up and then try to take a take-down, but I will successfully defend against him. I'll use my punching skills, shake him in the stance and finish the fight with a leg kick or a straight right punch. When they told me I was going to fight at the main event, I was very excited. It was a rush of adrenaline. But I'm going to treat this fight the same way I've treated all the other fights. I'll go into the cage and try to impose my fight with all my might.
Experts betting tips
It is clear that Moises is inferior to Makhachev in almost every aspect. But he has never lost early, and Islam is not known as a guy who finishes long fights. Especially since he's never had any high-level opponents either. We're expecting an interesting fight, both of them are very good at wrestling (Moises has an outstanding level of Jujitsu)
Bookmakers offer the following Win bets:
Makhachev to win for 1.14;
Moises to win for 6.0.
Betting on Islam in such conditions is an uninteresting thing to do. The line is obviously overloaded, but there's no doubt about the Russian's victory either. I personally do not think that Makhachev will be able to finish Moises, no one has ever been able to finish him, so I suggest considering the bet on total rounds over 2.5 at odds of 1.44.
Other predictions
