Toronto FC vs New York City FC Prediction: Momentum Meets Inconsistency in MLS

Toronto FC
Toronto FC
Finished
New York City FC
New York City FC
Football, USA, MLS
26.04.2025, 21:30
BMO Field, Toronto, Canada

Raphael George
24 Apr 2025
06:41
Statistics of the month:
64
32
0
66.67%
Statistics
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Odds 1,6
Bet Type Under 3 goals
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Toronto FC vs New York City FC: Prediction for the Match on April 26 2025

Prediction for the MLS match which will take place on April 26. Who will turn out to be stronger? Check the team conditions! Several betting options are available.

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In 2025, Toronto FC are finally pulling together: can they keep it going? Nine match days had passed since the Reds had registered a win in 2025, culminating in a season-startling, gritty, 1-0 away win over Real Salt Lake. Not that it was a pretty match with 32% possession, one shot on target, five yellow cards — but it worked. An early Theo Corbeanu strike made the difference, with Sean Johnson shining in goal, earning him MLS Team of the Matchday honors. 

Despite only one win and sitting 14th in the Eastern Conference, Toronto is on a four-game unbeaten run (LDDDW), and present trends indicate they are becoming difficult to break down. Four of their last five games have gone under 2.5 goals, and there is a pattern of maintaining an identical tightness in the parameters of cards and corners. For example, under 4.5 cards in 6 out of 8, and under 10.5 corners in 7 out of 9. 

But at home is a different story. They sit somewhere between unlucky and woeful in terms of BMO Field with their LDD record, as they still await that elusive home victory. This newfound belief, however, combined with a keeper in red-hot form, will surely lead them to grind their way through another result.

And dare we say it: Toronto was one-dimensional but is now disciplined, organized, and more confident. If defensive protocols stay put, they will surely rise in the table.

🔖 Expected Lineup 4-2-3-1: S. Johnson – K. Thompson, Kevin Long, Sigurd Rosted, R. Petretta – D. Flores, J. Osorio – F. Bernardeschi, L. Insigne, T. Corbeanu – D. Etienne

⛔️ Out: R. Laryea, Henry Wingo, Zane Monlouis, D. Kerr 

👤Head coach: Robin Fraser 

Toronto FC Latest Games

Toronto FC Toronto FC
10.05.25
Toronto FC Toronto FC
2 - 0
DC United DC United
03.05.25
Toronto FC Toronto FC
0 - 2
New England Revolution New England Revolution
26.04.25
Toronto FC Toronto FC
0 - 1
New York City FC New York City FC
20.04.25
Real Salt Lake Real Salt Lake
0 - 1
Toronto FC Toronto FC
12.04.25
Toronto FC Toronto FC
0 - 0
Minnesota United Minnesota United

New York City FC Latest Games

New York City FC New York City FC
11.05.25
New York City FC New York City FC
0 - 1
CF Montreal CF Montreal
04.05.25
New York City FC New York City FC
1 - 0
FC Cincinnati FC Cincinnati
26.04.25
Toronto FC Toronto FC
0 - 1
New York City FC New York City FC
20.04.25
New England Revolution New England Revolution
2 - 0
New York City FC New York City FC
13.04.25
New York City FC New York City FC
1 - 0
Philadelphia Union Philadelphia Union

NYC FC is tough to understand. One week, they look like playoff contenders. Then they fail to show up at all. After suffering their third loss in five matches (DLLWL) to New England, 2-0, they remain 10th in the East. They had 58 percent possession and four corners, but could muster only two shots on goal, lacking the clinical touch in the box.

On the road, NYCFC haven't been great: winless (DLDLL). It's not just the results, but the overall package as such; they can enjoy possession, but it seems as though there is no reliable end product in the attacking third.

But defensive discipline could become a silver lining. Under 4.5 cards appear in each of their last six matches while now becoming regulars for corner-heavy games - over 10.5 corners in 5 of their last 7.

Transfer rumors heat on and off the pitch. Kevin De Bruyne has been talked about as interested in a possible move to MLS, and NYCFC has the City Football Group tie that makes them top candidates for signing. There is also interest in Kenneth Omeruo and Aiden O'Neal, which indicates that a squad revamp may be underway.

Inability to perform at the right moment defines this team. They don't have a top striker who can finish, and the midfield is young and still gelling. This could once again be a close affair against a stubborn Toronto, unless their playmakers, like Moralez and Ojeda, can create something special.

🔖 Expected Lineup 4-5-1: M. Freese – K. O'Toole, T. Martins, J. Haak, Mitja Ilenic – A. Martinez, J. Shore, M. Morales, H. Wolf, A. Ojeda – M. Bakrar

⛔️ Out: Jacob Arroyave, Malachi Jones

👤Head coach: Pascal Jansen 

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In the last 10 meetings, NYCFC seems to be soaring, winning 4 straight matches against Toronto FC. The total record stands at NYCFC 6 wins, Toronto 2 wins, Draws 2, with the latest encounter ending 3-2 in favor of NYCFC. It seems goals have been a constant theme in this matchup; over 2.5 goals being scored in 7 of the last 8 fixtures, while discipline-wise, it remains low, with under 4.5 cards shown in 8 out of 10 games and corners normally being meek (under 10.5 corners already at play in all of the last 9 meetings). Toronto has also conceded goals for the last 4 games against NYCFC in-a-row.

History of Head-to-Heads

Major League Soccer 2025 Major League Soccer 2025
26.04.25
Toronto FC Toronto FC
0 - 1
New York City FC New York City FC
Major League Soccer 2024 Major League Soccer 2024
12.05.24
Toronto FC Toronto FC
2 - 3
New York City FC New York City FC
Major League Soccer 2024 Major League Soccer 2024
17.03.24
New York City FC New York City FC
2 - 1
Toronto FC Toronto FC
Major League Soccer 2023 Major League Soccer 2023
24.09.23
New York City FC New York City FC
3 - 0
Toronto FC Toronto FC
Leagues Cup East Grp. 3 2023 Leagues Cup East Grp. 3 2023
27.07.23
New York City FC New York City FC
5 - 0
Toronto FC Toronto FC
  • Both teams are trending towards low-scoring affairs. Toronto have had under 2.5 in 4 of their last 5, and NYCFC’s blunt away attack increases the likelihood of a tight match.
  • Seven of Toronto’s last 9 games and all of the last 9 head-to-heads have had fewer than 11 corners. Expect both sides to struggle to generate enough attacking width.
  • With 6 of 8 Toronto games and all 6 of NYCFC’s recent matches staying under this total, a calm, card-light game looks likely.
  • Toronto’s defense has improved, while NYCFC’s away goals have dried up. BTTS has failed to land in 4 of NYCFC’s last 6 away games.

This match promises to be more tactical than it is a firework show. Toronto FC have finally found some structure under pressure, and with Sean Johnson in elite form in front of goal, they will back themselves to frustrate a NYCFC frontline that is struggling. As for New York, their away woes and inability to break teams down could once again come back to haunt them.

An angle for bettors: really down-scoring-and-event trends. Tight margins, minimal chaos. This is valuable risk-taking against the grain of typical end-to-end MLS games, which tend to favor teams leaning defensive.

Below are our betting tips for this match:

🔥Our match prediction for this match is Under 3 goals with a coefficient of 1.6 Odds on 1xbet 

🔥Our betting tip for this match is Under 10 corners with a coefficient of 1.83 Odds on Bet365

🔥Our main betting tip for this match is Both Teams to Score - No with a coefficient of 2.12 Odds on Betway

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