Saturday’s MLS clash at BMO Field pits two teams on very different trajectories—Toronto FC, still hunting for their first win of the season, and Minnesota United, quietly climbing the Western Conference ladder with a six-game unbeaten run.
Toronto, sitting rock bottom in the East, have been stuck in a cycle of draws and losses. Despite some promise in the last outing—a 1-1 draw with Inter Miami—it’s been 15 games since they last tasted victory. Minnesota, meanwhile, are firing on all cylinders, coming off a gritty 2-1 win over NYCFC. Their recent record? Unbeaten in six, and they’ve scored first in every single one of those matches.
Claim Welcome BonusToronto FC
Form: LLLDD
Standings: 0W – 3D – 4L (14th, Eastern Conference)
Toronto’s season so far has been a slow-motion car crash. Despite a decent performance against Inter Miami where they earned a point, the problems remain deep-rooted: defensive lapses, midfield disconnection, and an attack that can't capitalize on the few chances they create.
Bernardeschi’s goal was a flash of individual brilliance, but there’s no sign yet of a cohesive attacking plan. Their possession numbers continue to trend low, and they struggle to dictate tempo. At home, things haven’t been much better—they’ve looked nervy, especially when going behind early (which happens often).
That said, their xG for this match is 1.38, slightly up from recent games, suggesting they could find the net. But the bigger concern is whether they can hold off a red-hot Minnesota side that’s comfortable letting the opponent have the ball—and then punishing them on the break.
Unless Toronto find a spark—and quickly—they're looking at another long night.
Minnesota United
Form: WDDWW
Standings: 4W – 2D – 1L (3rd, Western Conference)
Minnesota United are quietly becoming one of the most consistent sides in MLS this season. They might not dominate possession (just 26% last match!), but they do everything else right. They’re organized, opportunistic, and mentally strong.
In their recent win against NYCFC, they absorbed pressure and struck efficiently—goals from Oluwaseyi and Trapp proved once again how dangerous they can be in transition. Their defensive shape allows them to absorb without panic, and their counterattacks are quick and sharp.
They enter this match with a slightly higher xG than Toronto (1.45 vs 1.38), and considering Toronto’s defensive frailties, that gap could easily widen. Minnesota are also extremely disciplined—few cards, smart pressing, and great in-game management.
Don’t be surprised if they sit back early, let Toronto burn themselves out chasing the ball, and then strike either side of halftime. That’s been the winning formula lately—andworkingorking.
Head to Head
This will be the fifth MLS meeting between Toronto and Minnesota. Toronto have the edge historically with two wins, while Minnesota have claimed one, and one match ended in a draw. Their last encounter? A 1-1 stalemate back in June 2023.
Recent head-to-head trends suggest an open game. Both teams have scored in 4 of the last 5 meetings, with over 2.5 goals hitting in 4 of those as well. Both sides have also conceded in each of their last four meetings.
Notably, all five matches have stayed under 4.5 cards—discipline tends to hold up when these two clash.
History of Head-to-Heads
Major League Soccer 2025 
Minnesota United
Major League Soccer 2023
Toronto FC
Major League Soccer 2019
Minnesota United
Major League Soccer 2018
Toronto FC
Major League Soccer 2017
Minnesota United
Toronto FC Latest Games
Toronto FC
New York City FC
Toronto FC
Minnesota United
Toronto FC
Vancouver Whitecaps
Minnesota United Latest Games
Minnesota United
FC Dallas
Minnesota United
Minnesota United
Real Salt Lake
LA Galaxy
Expert Betting Tips
Both Teams to Score (BTTS – Yes) @ 1.67 Odds
• Backed by recent history (4/5 H2H), Toronto’s defensive woes, and Minnesota’s attack. Even with low possession, the Loons find the net. And Toronto’s xG is creeping upward.
Minnesota United to Score First @ 1.89 Odds
• They’ve scored first in 6 straight matches, and Toronto have conceded first in 6 of their last 8. This one screams trend continuation.
Over 2.5 Goals @ 1.85 Odds
• Both teams average over 1 xG per match. Combined with recent H2H results, this feels like a 2-1 or 3-1 type of game.
Final Thoughts:
This isn’t just a “bad team vs good team” scenario—it’s a tale of two mentalities. Toronto are stuck in survival mode, unable to string together coherent attacking phases or hold a lead. Minnesota, on the other hand, are thriving on pragmatism. They’re not flashy—but they’re efficient, disciplined, and full of belief.
Unless Toronto shock us with a full-system reset, the most likely outcome is another frustrating night for the Reds—and another smart, clinical win (or at least a result) for the Loons.
Other predictions
