The New York Red Bulls host the Columbus Crew in the very important second-leg match in a best-of-three series of MLS playoffs. After their shocking 1-0 on-the-road win at Columbus, Red Bulls will try to take advantage of their home field to move into the next round. Having been outsmarted in the first leg thanks to Sandro Schwarz's much-disciplined defensive structure, Wilfried Nancy's Crew will have to find a way past a Red Bulls team that, though not possessing the ball for the majority of the match, put on a resilient performance. Columbus, having taken so long to get accustomed to their possession-based style of play, head into this tie very determined to make the situation right; hence, this could be an entertaining and tactically engrossing match.
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It is true that New York Red Bulls did steal the first game of the season, considering that they were seriously out-possessed, with only 22% of the ball, and they never created a big scoring opportunity. Nevertheless, their defensive structure was good, and Felipe Carballo's single goal proved enough to seal the victory. That win showed the resiliency this side has seen, as they absorbed most of that pressure en route to an impressive eight saves.
In the first leg, the Red Bulls were very organized in the back with a compact 3-4-1-2 shape. Their structure is all about ensuring midfield stability and the elimination of passing channels; this gave them good absorption against Columbus' pressure. The Carballo behind two forwards provides an outlet for transition moments, but this is likely something Schwarz sticks to conservatively due to his first-leg advantage. Look for them to sit deep and attempt to hit Columbus on the counter, relying on long balls and exploiting any gaps as Columbus is pushing forward.
Probable Lineup
Columbus Crew
Meanwhile, Columbus dictated the tempo with 78% possession, worked its way to four clear-cut opportunities but lacked finishing punch. Wilfried Nancy's side must be punchier in front of goal if they are to tie up the series. With elite goal-scoring talent in Cucho Hernandez and the creative powers of Diego Rossi, the Crew would look to put pressure on the Red Bulls' defense and force a third and deciding match in Columbus.
Wilfried Nancy's 3-4-2-1 is a possession-heavy structure that allows Columbus the prerogative to set the tempo through midfield control. Having two attacking midfielders just behind the lone striker, Columbus easily stretches the defense and creates overloads in wide areas. Nancy, without a doubt, is going to double down on this approach in an attempt to break down the compact Red Bulls formation. The key to their success will be quick, incisive passes and converting their chances, especially if NYRB sits back to protect their aggregate lead.
Probable Lineup
Head to Head
Of their last 20 matches, Columbus Crew has come out on top 11 times, the Red Bulls five times, with four matches ending in draws. While Columbus has the better historical record, the recent win by the Red Bulls does indicate this series is highly competitive. Often, these matches represent a clashing of styles, where the Crew's possession-based gameplay clashes with the direct nature of the Red Bulls.
The second leg is going to be important based on Columbus finishing their chances and breaking down the defensive block of the Red Bulls. While they enjoyed a high amount of possession throughout their first match, they had difficulties in converting their chances against an extremely disciplined New York defense. With Columbus, it all relies on Cucho Hernandez and Diego Rossi - part of their offensive structure - to get through in this second leg. If the Crew can use their width and also finish better in front of goal, they are in a good position to tie the series. The confidence that the Red Bulls have gained from that first-leg away win will make them hard to break down, however.
- Under 3.5 Goals @ 1.603 Odds
- Goal Range 1-2 Goals @ 2.12 Odds
- Correct Score 1-1 @ 7.00 Odds
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