New York City vs Philadelphia Union Prediction: Both teams should grab a goal.

The most important clash in the Eastern Conference of MLS is on September 19, 2024, between New York City FC hosting Philadelphia Union. This will be a very important match with both teams in the hunt for a playoff place as the regular season edges nearer to its close. NYCFC currently sits 6th, showing more consistency throughout the season, while Philadelphia Union has struggled in 11th place, finding it hard to maintain form. Still, the match will be an intense encounter since both teams have been repeatedly characterized this season with attacking proficiency and recent defensive fragility.

New York City FC

NYCFC comes into this game without a win in their last three games. The most recent result was the 1-1 draw away at DC United. The visitors took the lead via a penalty by Santiago Rodríguez but couldn't hold onto the three points. This season, NYCFC has an imperfect record: 11 wins, 7 draws, and 10 losses, but its position in 6th shows a side that has been competitive. NYCFC has been solid at home, and they'll be looking to get back to winning ways against a Philadelphia Union side that recently hasn't fared too well.

NYCFC's form over the last five games-1W 2D 2L-showcases a team that has often been the more dominant in possession but does struggle to close out games. That was reflected in their 62% possession in the 1-1 draw against DC United, but their inability to create more than one big chance and only managing 3 shots on target underlines the need for more cutting edge in the final third.

Setting that off, Matthew Freese performed an important display in the goal, as he made 5 saves and a passing accuracy of 77% showed he was important in the build-up play of the team. NYCFC has struggled defensively in recent matches, conceding in each of their last six games, which may prove to be one area where Philadelphia Union will look to exploit.

NYCFC has relied on the creativity of Santiago Rodríguez in the 4-2-3-1 system, but they need to be creating more openings from open play, not relying on set pieces and penalties. Still, home advantage and scoring the first goal in five of the last six might make the difference.

NYCFC will most likely stick with their possession-based 4-2-3-1, looking to control the tempo of the game through midfield and taking control of the rhythm. Players such as Santiago Rodríguez, pivotal so far for NYCFC in providing attacking impetus, will be pulling the strings. NYCFC's high possession stats indicate that they'll look to try and pin Philadelphia back, creating chances with some patient build-up play. However, their wide players and full-backs need to improve in terms of delivering more accurate crosses because the 15% crossing accuracy from the last game is not good enough to continually break down Philadelphia's defense.

Defensively, NYCFC needs to be compact and not get hit on the counter, especially against a Philadelphia team that will look to exploit any space left in behind when they commit players forward.

Philadelphia Union

Meanwhile, Philadelphia Union, with four losses in the last five games, lost 3-1 to Inter Miami. The inconsistency has seen the Union drop down to 11th place in the Eastern Conference with a record of 7 wins, 9 draws, and 12 losses. Though they do have some time to make amends for the season, all eyes are on them to garner points in this important away match. While they have been porous at the back, conceding with regularity in recent matches, they have shown glimpses of brilliance in attack.

Recent form reads 1W 4L for Philadelphia Union, and that tells the story of a team in trouble. Their last outing was a 3-1 loss to Inter Miami, which extended the defensive frailty of the team, dominated in possession, 38%, and could not handle the attacking threat of Miami despite decent shots on target.

Union's reliance on long balls-67% completion in the last game-and crosses-25% accuracy, want a team bypassing midfield and attacking directly. Mikael Uhre's goal against Miami underlined their ability to find the net, while their defense, having shipped 6 goals in their last five games, is an egregious concern.

Philadelphia's 4-3-1-2 set up frees them to attack but, at the same time, opens them to danger at the back, especially when up against teams that can dominate possession like NYCFC. Their task is to buttress their defense and try to exploit whatever weaknesses NYCFC may show on the counterattack.

The Philadelphia Union, knowing their own frailties in defense, can be a bit more pragmatic in this game. They can use quick transitions from defense to attack. They could use the same 4-3-1-2 formation, which will further allow them to take advantage of NYCFC's transition defensive vulnerability. Mikael Uhre will be a focal point in attack, using his pace to stretch the NYCFC defense.

Philadelphia will also most likely count on their own aerial strength and long-ball strategy to bypass the NYCFC midfield press. However, they still need to be more clinical with their crosses and work out their efficiency in front of goal if they are going to exploit NYCFC's defensive vulnerabilities.

Head to Head

NYCFC also leads in wins historically, but it is an extremely tightly contested rivalry between the two teams, NYCFC and Philadelphia Union. In the 20 matches played between the two teams so far, NYCFC has managed a total of 10 wins while Philadelphia has secured 9 victories; just once has a match between these two teams ended in a draw. That even balance points to the competitive nature of their meetings, and perhaps that is what could be expected in the impending clash as well.

NYCFC have conceded in each of their last 10 matches against Philadelphia, something that shows Philadelphia have ways of getting past NYCFC in each match. Philadelphia Union has also leaked goals in the last six matches against NYCFC, sealing the idea that these games usually feature goals from both sides.

Indeed, in the last six matches between them, over 2.5 goals were scored in each, with both teams scoring in each of those matches. From this trend, another high-scoring match could be on its way.

NYCFC won away from home 2-1 in the most recent meeting between the sides in May 2024. It had seemed to confirm their burgeoning ascendancy in the fixture, but Philadelphia Union will hope to put the record straight here.

Expert Betting Tips

This will be an exciting and important fixture in the chase for playoff spots in the Eastern Conference. NYCFC wants to assert its home dominance, while Philadelphia will be desperate to stop the bleeding and get that vital away point. This should be an open and entertaining match as both team defenses have not been able to hold clean sheets.

Both NYCFC and Philadelphia have conceded in their last six matches, and recent head-to-head suggests both teams find the target. Their last six meetings have all seen BTTS.

Besides, with both defenses struggling, this match has a high likelihood of yielding goals. Indeed, the last six matches between these two teams have seen all of them result in over 2.5 goals, and with each of them not showing any kind of form lately, another high-scoring game should be witnessed.

In five of NYCFC's last six matches, they opened the scoring first. With a home-field advantage and Philadelphia's troubles defensively, NYCFC will likely strike first again.

• Home to Score First @ 1.6 Odds
• GG (Yes) at 1.6 Odds
• GG & Over 2.5 Goals @ 1.73 Odds