Houston Dynamo vs New England Revolution Prediction: Houston is solid at home

With the MLS regular season slowly drawing to an end, this coming game between Houston Dynamo and New England Revolution on 3rd October 2024 will be an important match for both teams, although for various reasons. Houston Dynamo is currently sitting 6th in the Western Conference with a record of 12 wins, 9 draws, and 9 losses. The team now has an attainable playoff place, but they need to continue their good run of performances to make a claim for sure. Coming into this match against the Impact, New England Revolution stands at a much less enviable position-14th within the Eastern Conference with an abominable record of 9W-4D-17L. Although slim, the home side New England will be expecting to end their season on a high note and upset Houston's playoff chase.

Houston Dynamo

Houston Dynamo usually play a possession-based game, as was evident with their 62% in their last game against Seattle. However, much as they enjoyed the possession advantage, in the final third, they recorded zero big chances and just one shot on target. Much of their attack heavily relies on midfield build-up but tends to stress a lot when up against well-organized backlines, as seen in the 1-0 loss to Seattle. A low conversion rate and over-reliance on long balls - 48% of their total play and the highest in the league - limits their ability to break down compact defences. They are, however, solid at the back, having conceded less than 2.5 goals in six of the last seven games.

Houston Dynamo has been quite consistent this season, as most teams are, at their home base and usually does much better than on road trips. Recent form is good with 2 wins, 2 draws, and 1 loss in their last five matches; though the loss to Seattle really brought up some issues in breaking down compact teams. They're formidable on their home soil with 9 wins and would look to make something out of that against a weaker New England side.

Whether Houston Dynamo can break down leaky on-the-road New England rearguard will be the key tactical battle. While Houston's possession-based approach may dominate the ball, their inefficiency in creating clear-cut chances could come back to haunt them.

Houston Dynamo's playoff aspirations will definitely add extra drive to this game. The home crowd may give them a much-needed psychological boost as they'll be anxious to secure points to consolidate their position in the top seven.

New England Revolution

The New England Revolution on the other hand tend to be reliant mostly on directness, with 59% of their passes coming from long balls in the recent 1-0 win against Nashville. And they're effective at creating chances-mostly two big chances created-relying on quick transitions. They have been poor at the back though, struggling throughout the season with 17 losses and giving away goals, especially away from home. Their defense has been pretty shaky, although they managed to keep a clean sheet in the last match, while their inconsistent form raises questions of possible issues against such a possession-dominant side like Houston.

The New England Revolution has massively struggled away from home, with just two wins on the road all season. With their 1-0 win against Nashville, their away record stands poor, with them conceding heavily in many games. The last meeting was a 3-0 win against Houston, but that was at home, and they will find it rather difficult to repeat that performance in Texas.

Where New England's directness is concerned, adding in a greater reliance on the long ball may enable it to skirt Houston's midfield pressure, but unless it develops some consistent goal-scoring threats-which will not be easy-capitalizing on those chances may prove tough.

For New England, maybe being 14th in the Eastern Conference lowers expectations, but they could still pose some sort of threat with nothing to lose as underdogs.

Head to Head

The historical record between Houston Dynamo and New England Revolution is relatively even, with the latter slightly ahead. In 20 matches between the sides, New England Revolution has 10 wins, while Houston Dynamo has managed to win 6 times; 4 matches have ended in draws.

One of the main trends going on here is New England's dominance in more recent matches. In the last encounter, New England did win convincingly 3-0 at home in March 2023, further illustrating Houston's complex away issues. However, this time the context is different, with Houston playing on home soil where they have been so much stronger.

Another telling stat is that Houston have conceded in their last five meetings with New England, suggesting that despite their home form, they have been vulnerable defensively against the Revolution.

New England Revolution

With the form going into the match, Houston does retain a good home record and New England has terrible away form. The most likely outcome of the match is Houston Dynamo winning. Given the defensive solidity of Houston at home and the inconsistency on the road from New England, the Dynamo really should have enough to secure three points.

The recent games for both teams have been low scoring, with Houston having its last six out of seven matches finish under 2.5 goals. For New England, there has been under 2.5 goals seen in their last game. I predict a tight match with few goals.

Both teams to score seems off the cards considering Houston's general solidity at the back and New England's inconsistency up front-especially on their travels.

• Home Win/Draw & Under 3.5 Goals @ 1.78 Odds
• GG (No) @ 2.05 Odds
• Correct Score 2-0 @ 8.50 Odds