29-Sep-2024, 03:30
Q2 Stadium, Austin, USA
On September 29, 2024, Austin FC went up against Real Salt Lake in a very important MLS Western Conference game. The teams are in very different circumstances, with Austin FC sitting 11th in the Western Conference and struggling to maintain form and push for playoff spots. Real Salt Lake, on the other hand, are sitting comfortably in 2nd place, still within the race for top spot, and looking to secure a high seed for the playoffs.
With both teams coming into this game on contrasting runs of form, this is a huge game not only for the league table but also for their season goals. Austin want to revive their season while Salt Lake is looking to gain momentum into the playoffs.
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The Austin season has been up and down, and they go into this match in very worrying form as they have not won in the last four matches. This season, they are 11th in the Western Conference, with 9 wins, 8 draws, and 13 losses, while on a slippery slope. In their most recent match, at home, they lost 1-0 to Houston, struggling offensively even with the creation of 5 big chances. This has resulted in only one win out of the last five games, with an inconsistent sequence of 1W, 1D, and 3L; perhaps a major problem for them has been not being able to convert opportunities into goals.
The defensive fragility of Austin has also come to the fore as they have conceded in each of their last four matches. Despite that, they have maintained a trend of low-scoring games, with over 2.5 goals in only one of their last seven matches. This indicates that the team is getting better on defense at the cost of the attack. At home, they will be forced to be sharp, as it's here where their form has seen some shortfall of late.
Austin FC had normally been setting up in 3-4-2-1, given that they usually try to command the midfield and depend on offering width from the space that is left by the wingbacks. On Sunday, against Houston, they were able to create big chances amounting to 5 but failed to capitalize on any, pointing at inefficiency in the final third. Expect emphasis on the wing game from Austin in search of stretching out the defense of Salt Lake. However, it is their midfield that will be important in dictating possession. They still have to work on cohesion in their attack. The set-pieces might also be important, given the fact that in the last match they managed to obtain 11 corners, which could be an area to exploit considering the erratic defense of Salt Lake.
In defense, Austin will have to stay alert of the Salt Lake dangerous forward line, as the 3-man defence will be stretched by RSL's wide attackers and overlapping fullbacks. Compactness at the back, discipline defending transitions- similar to their 5-1 loss to Salt Lake earlier this season-will be key in avoiding another defensive collapse.
Real Salt Lake
On the other side, Real Salt Lake is in a pretty good position-2nd in the Western Conference with 14 wins, 9 draws, and 7 losses. The last five games really show a bit of an up-and-down run for them with 2W, 1D, and 2L, but they still have the potential to pose something with their goal-scoring ability. Their last game was an exciting 3-3 home draw against Portland, which really showed them going for goals but also opened some defensive weaknesses.
Real Salt Lake has developed a penchant for high-scoring games, with over 2.5 goals scored in six of their last eight matches. Still, their backline has been leaky as they concede in each of their last three matches. While they present a threat going forward with a strong offensive setup, this is something they will need to sharpen up on if they are to avoid dropping points away from home.
Real Salt Lake operates well in a 4-2-3-1 system that has served them relatively well so far, as they have managed to balance attacking play with the need for cover at the back. They had 53% possession in their last game while creating 3 big chances-an exposition of how well they press in an attacking manner. The wide players and the attacking midfielder behind the striker become vital in this Real Salt Lake attack, trying to overload at the defense level through quick passes and movements.
Defensively, Salt Lake need to be compact because they have let in 7 goals in their last three games. The fact that the defensive midfielders provide cover notwithstanding, they have struggled against teams that press them high up or even when there are clear playthrough balls. Their tendency to allow a lot of space between the lines can be exploited by Austin's wingers and attacking midfielders. Salt Lake need to change their defensive shape a little bit so as not to give Austin's attackers so much space on the wings.
Head to Head
The head-to-head record between Austin FC and Real Salt Lake is perfectly balanced, with both sides managing to win 4 matches each and no draws between them. That even record justifies the competitive nature of their encounters, though high-scoring games haven't been strangers in recent times.
Goals are one of the main features of their games. 7 of the last matches were all over 2.5 goals, and that should signify that these games are some kind of open, attacking fixture. What's more, in 6 out of the last 7 matches, both teams have scored, showing the defensive frailties on both sides, as well as their ability to net a goal.
In their previous meeting in June 2024, Real Salt Lake routed Austin 5-1 at home, as it ripped apart its attacking weaknesses. The one-sided result will still be fresh in the minds of both teams, with Austin eager to avenge that heavy defeat.
Expert Betting Tips
Salt Lake is the favorite going into the match, given their offensive firepower and Austin's poor form lately. Their 5-1 win in June also adds some psychological weight. Both teams have been conceding in their recent matches while the H2H also suggests that both sides often find the net when the two teams meet.
Given that Salt Lake have trended towards high-scoring over 2.5 matches in 6 of their last 8, Austin's poor defensive form should make this a fixture that sees over 2.5 goals.
- Over 2.5 Goals @ 1.63 Odds
- GG & Over 2.5 Goals @ 1.75 Odds
- Away DNB @ 2.10 Odds
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