Stadium: Red Bull Arena (Leipzig)
01.03.2025 17:30
RB Leipzig and Mainz face off in what promises to be a competitive encounter, with both teams bringing unique strengths. Leipzig, the home team, has demonstrated offensive firepower, averaging 1.65 goals per game, though their defensive record is slightly concerning, conceding 1.35 per match. In contrast, Mainz has been more balanced, with a solid attack (1.61 goals per game) and a disciplined defense, allowing just 1.04 goals per game. Leipzig’s matches tend to have more goals, with a 56.5% probability of over 2.5 goals, while Mainz’s fixtures have a lower probability of crossing that threshold.
One key battle will be in midfield, where Leipzig’s attacking intent will be tested against Mainz’s organized defense. Mainz’s ability to generate corners at a high rate (60.9% probability of over 9.5 corners) could provide them with key set-piece opportunities. However, Leipzig’s ability to find the net in most games and their home advantage will likely make them slight favorites.
Both teams have a disciplined but aggressive approach, with a notable probability of over 4 cards (Leipzig at 43.5% and Mainz at 56.5%). This suggests a high-intensity game with possible stoppages due to fouls. The statistical trends indicate that Leipzig might dominate possession, while Mainz will look to remain compact and hit on the counter. Given Leipzig’s slightly superior offensive output and Mainz’s strong defensive setup, the outcome of this match is likely to be closely contested.
Claim Your Welcome Bonus!RB Leipzig
RB Leipzig has had a solid season so far, securing 10 wins, 8 draws, and 5 losses. Offensively, they have been consistent, averaging 1.65 goals per game with a total of 38 goals scored. However, defensively, they have shown some vulnerabilities, conceding 1.35 goals per game, totaling 31 goals against them. Their matches often feature goals, with a 56.5% probability of over 2.5 goals and a 52.2% likelihood of both teams scoring (BTTS). In terms of discipline, Leipzig sees over 4 cards in 43.5% of their games, while corners exceed 9.5 in 43.5% of matches. Despite occasional defensive lapses, their home form and attacking quality make them a formidable opponent. If they can tighten their defense, they have a strong chance of securing another win.
Mainz 05
Mainz enters this fixture with a slightly better win record, having secured 11 victories, alongside 5 draws and 7 losses. Their attack has been reliable, scoring 37 goals at an average of 1.61 per game. What sets Mainz apart is their defensive solidity, conceding just 1.04 goals per game (24 total), making them a tough team to break down. Unlike Leipzig, Mainz’s games tend to be less goal-heavy, with only a 43.5% probability of over 2.5 goals and BTTS occurring. However, they are more aggressive in winning corners, exceeding 9.5 in 60.9% of matches. Additionally, their card count is higher, with a 56.5% probability of over 4 cards in a game. With a balanced approach, Mainz’s ability to defend and hit on the counter makes them a dangerous opponent.
History of Head-to-Heads
Bundesliga 2024/2025
Mainz 05
Bundesliga 2024/2025
RB Leipzig
Bundesliga 2023/2024
Mainz 05
Bundesliga 2023/2024
RB Leipzig
Bundesliga 2022/2023
Mainz 05
RB Leipzig Latest Games
RB Leipzig 
RB Leipzig
Stuttgart
RB Leipzig
Bayern Munich
RB Leipzig
Mainz 05 Latest Games
Mainz 05
Bayer Leverkusen
Mainz 05
Eintracht Frankfurt
Mainz 05
Wolfsburg
Expert Betting Tips
Based on the statistical analysis, this game is likely to be a tight affair, but RB Leipzig has a slight edge due to their offensive capabilities and home advantage. A 2-1 victory for Leipzig seems a reasonable prediction, given their higher probability of over 2.5 goals (56.5%) and Mainz’s ability to keep games close.
The probability of both teams scoring (BTTS) sits at around 47-50%, reinforcing the expectation of a closely fought contest. Additionally, the game has a moderate likelihood of featuring over 9.5 corners and over 4 total cards. Leipzig’s ability to convert chances will be key, while Mainz’s solid defence could frustrate them. However, if Leipzig can break through early, they should be able to edge out a narrow win.
Below are my predictions for the game:
My first prediction is BTTS for odds of 1.70 at Betway
My second prediction is at BTTS for odds of 2.04 at Bet365
My final prediction is over 2.5 goals for odds of 1.80 at 1XBet
Other predictions
