Ligue 1 is entering the home stretch, and Sunday’s showdown between Toulouse and Lille could be a sneaky-good fixture. While neither side is fighting for the title or fearing the drop, both have plenty on the line. Toulouse are stuck in a funk with three straight losses, but they’ll be desperate to bounce back at home. Meanwhile, Lille—fresh off a painful 2-1 home loss to Lyon—are still clinging to their European dreams and need every point they can get.
On paper, this is a clash of styles. Toulouse have been poor in possession and leaky at the back, while Lille tend to control the pace and look to Jonathan David to bag the goals. The stats suggest a lively affair, with goals, cards, and drama likely on the cards. Whether you're watching or wagering, this one’s worth a closer look. Let's break it all down.
Claim Welcome BonusToulouse
Toulouse come into this one reeling from a 3-2 loss against Marseille, and despite the goals from Frank Magri and Vincent Sierro, their performance left much to be desired. They had just 31% possession, managed only one corner, and forced 3 shots on target—not the kind of attacking output you want heading into a clash with a top-8 side like Lille.
Their expected goals (xG) for this match is 0.99, reflecting the challenges they’ve had creating quality chances. With key players like Rasmus Nicolaisen, Niklas Schmidt, and Zakaria Aboukhlal all out, Toulouse's squad depth will be tested.
Form-wise, they’ve gone four games without a win (WDLLL) and have lost three straight. The defensive frailties are glaring—they’ve conceded in each of their last four and seen over 2.5 goals in five of their last six matches.
There’s some creative spark still in the side, thanks to Gabriel Suazo, who leads the team with seven assists this season. But if Toulouse are going to halt their slump, they’ll need to do a lot more in possession and drastically tighten up at the back.
Currently sitting 11th in the standings with a 9-7-12 record, the fight for a top-half finish still matters. But unless something changes quickly, they might slip further down.
Key trend: Under 10.5 corners has hit in 8 of their last 10.
LOSC Lille
Lille might be licking their wounds after a 2-1 loss to Lyon, but don’t count them out just yet. Despite only having 43% possession and 4 shots on target, they were very much in that game and can take heart from Bafodé Diakité’s goal and the way they pushed in the second half.
The xG outlook for this match is 1.39, suggesting Lille should edge the attacking metrics against Toulouse. They’ve also been scoring first in 4 of their last 5 matches—starting strong could be key here again.
Injuries are a concern, with Umtiti, Zhegrova, Santos, and Ethan Mbappé all sidelined. That said, the presence of Jonathan David, who’s already racked up a staggering 23 goals this season, gives them a clear attacking edge.
Their recent form (WLLWL) is inconsistent, but Lille remain a serious threat on the road. Defensively, they’ve conceded in three straight games, so clean sheets are far from guaranteed. But their ability to dictate tempo and stay clinical in the final third makes them dangerous against a struggling Toulouse.
Standing 8th in the table with a 13-8-7 record, Lille are in the thick of the European qualification race. Every point counts now, and a win here could vault them right back into the top 6 conversation.
Keep in mind: Over 4.5 cards has hit in 4 of their last 5, and under 10.5 corners has landed in 6 straight.
Head to Head
The historical numbers give Lille the edge—40 wins compared to 29 for Toulouse, with 26 draws sprinkled in. Their most recent encounter came back in October 2024, where Lille edged Toulouse 2-1 in a tight affair.
Recent trends tell a juicy story. Toulouse have conceded in 7 straight matches, while Lille have allowed goals in 3 straight. Goal-fests are no fluke here—over 2.5 goals has hit in 5 of the last 7, and both teams have scored in 4 of the last 5.
Fun fact? Lille have scored first in 5 of the last 6 meetings.
History of Head-to-Heads
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Expert Betting Tips
1. Both Teams to Score – YES (1.83 Odds)
• Toulouse have scored in 4 of their last 5 despite poor form, and Lille rarely keep clean sheets. The model favors a GG result with high probability.
2. Over 2.5 Goals (2.21 Odds)
• Given Toulouse’s leaky defense and Lille’s attacking potency, especially with Jonathan David firing, this is a strong value play. Historical head-to-head trends back this up.
3. Under 10.5 Corners (1.66 Odds)
• Both teams consistently fall under this threshold. Toulouse games especially skew low on corners, and our analysis sees this as one of the strongest bets.
Final Thoughts – Value Is in the Props
While Lille are the better side on paper, Toulouse’s desperation and home edge could level the playing field. This one feels more like a rollercoaster than a routine win for either team. Stick to goal-related markets and cards, and steer clear of risky moneyline picks.
Other predictions
