Toulouse vs Le Havre Prediction: Le Havre will prove the bookmakers wrong

This match between Toulouse and Le Havre on 15th September 2024 pits two teams against each other at opposite ends of the form spectrum, with Toulouse 15th on the table struggling in the early parts of the season, failing to win any of their opening three matches, while Le Havre sits comfortably in 7th after a great start to the season with two victories. Both teams will look forward to securing their campaigns with important points, with the extra pulse of Toulouse in trying to escape from their winning drought.

Toulouse

Toulouse goes into the match in terrible form. It has not won in its last five outings and comes off a 3-1 home defeat against Marseille. And now, Franck Magri's red card has added to their agony of being out of an attacking option.

Toulouse has been quite disappointing in the recent games, having 3 draws and 2 losses in their last five games. Besides, they have hardly scored lots of goals, having netted just one in their last two home games while conceding four in the process. It was evident in the recent 3-1 defeat to Marseille that they offered little creativity and control, having just 24% possession, failing to build attacks, and managing only one shot on target. Toulouse are defensively weak, having conceded in all the games so far, while the disciplinary aspect of things doesn't look good either, especially after the sending off of Magri.

Toulouse are likely to stick with their 3-4-2-1 shape as they look for a compact defensive shape before using players like Babicka and Desler to counterattack. Low numbers in possession, added to struggles creating any chances of note, will likely limit their effectiveness against the Le Havre defense.

Le Havre

Le Havre, on the other hand, have come off with a confident 3-1 win over Auxerre, showing both attacking flair and defensive stability. This meeting will see Toulouse trying to capitalize on their home advantage, while Le Havre seeks to build on the gains.

Le Havre goes into solid form, having won two out of their opening three games with only one loss to date. Their last match against Auxerre was a 3-1 win where they created four big chances and dominated the duels by 63%. They have been strong in their resilience and balance, mostly backed by a solid defense that sees them through in most of their games. Rassoul Ndiaye and Abdoulaye Toure have been instrumental upfront and in creating chances for their goals.

Le Havre operates in a 5-4-1 formation, focusing on strong defensive solidity and relying on full-backs for width in counter-attacks. This would most likely be the same approach taken against Toulouse, sitting deep in defense but looking to exploit any potential vulnerability in Toulouse's defense with quick transitions. Set pieces will be an area they would look toward, given Toulouse struggles with organization at the back.

The manager of Le Havre, Luka Elsner, instructs his team to sit deep compact and to soak up the pressure while looking for quick breaks down the wings. With the 5-4-1 formation, they were able to overload at the back while retaining width going forward.

Head to Head

In the last few years, these two clubs have faced each other 12 times, and Toulouse has the better record in this matchup. The home team won 6, the away won 2, and 4 matches were drawn by both clubs.

In the last 6 matches, Toulouse has had a blast in the opening of the match, opening the score first in 5 out of 6 matches. Under 10.5 corners has been seen in 6 of the last 7 meetings.

Also, Toulouse tends to do better at home, though recent form may affect their confidence coming into this game.

Expert Betting Tips

Given the tactical imbalance in this game, especially considering the fact that Toulouse struggle to show creativity at times, and with Le Havre's form, the visitors are most likely to create high-quality chances during transitions, given how Ndiaye and Toure are currently playing.

Le Havre, with their form and tactical approach, have a very good chance of winning away from home. Also, Toulouse will be without a few important players in this match.

Both teams have been involved in high-scoring games recently, and while the form of Toulouse has been abysmal, they do find at least one goal at home.

Finally, and most telling, Le Havre's attacking form combined with Toulouse's defensive frailties points toward a high-scoring game.

• Away Win/Draw @ 2.035 Odds
• Both Teams to Score @ 1.86 Odds
• Both Teams to Score @ 1.86 Odds