Saint-Etienne vs Auxerre Prediction: Both teams should find the back of the net

This will be the important Ligue 1 game for Saint-Etienne against Auxerre on 5th October 2024. Each of these teams has had a terrible start to their seasons and needs vital points that could turn their fortunes around. Saint-Etienne sits in 17th position, which is above the relegation positions, while Auxerre lies in 12th place, seeking stability after a series of poor results. This match promises to be an intriguing contest between two teams in need of consistency.

Saint-Etienne

Saint-Etienne heads into this match in poor form, managing to record just one win in six matches. They last drew 2-2 away to Nantes, a game in which they were second best for large periods and struggled to maintain any decent possession or create any clear-cut chances, despite managing to score twice.

Saint-Etienne will most likely retain their 4-3-3 formation. The basis of this formation has been wide play and transitions. Though the hosts prefer to attack through the wings, they rarely manage to boss games, as seen from an average of 39% possession in their last game. A success rate of 27% from crosses and reliance on long balls at 31% suggest directness, probably because their midfield is just not good enough to take care of possession. However, it is defensive frailties that have proved their biggest weakness, conceding the opening goal while losing control of the first half of the proceedings in 6 of the last 8 games.

Their defense is rather leaky, too, rarely clearing second balls or dealing with set pieces. Although their offense has shown glimpses of brilliance, such as a 2-2 draw against Nantes, it has lacked consistency in the final third, something that was best highlighted by creating just one big chance in that match.

Saint-Etienne have hardly had a smooth run, managing only one win in the last six games. A 2-2 draw against Nantes showed a lot of resilience but also their defensive vulnerability, especially in opening halves where they find themselves trailing more often.

Saint-Etienne has had certain struggles both at home and away this season. Considering they are playing at home, perhaps the slight advantage goes in their favor. Still, their defense has been pretty leaky so far, and they have conceded first mostly.

Saint-Etienne are likely to feel under some pressure at home given their precarious position near the relegation zone.

Auxerre

Auxerre, meanwhile, though a bit higher on the table, have had quite a torrid run, losing four of the last five matches. However, they will go into this game with oodles of confidence after an emphatic win over Brest 3-0 in the last outing.

Auxerre are adopting a 5-3-2 formation and will hence be adopting a more structured approach to defending. They don't mind giving possession to the opposition-just 38% against Brest-but can always guarantee quick counter-attacks and creating big chances when they do come forward. Against Brest, they created five big chances and showed efficiency in front of goal with four shots on target from limited possession. Defensively, they have been tighter than Saint-Etienne, leaking fewer goals all season, while their 79% tackle success rate underlines a solid defence that has been further shored up by the use of wing-backs to close space on both touchlines.

Auxerre will most likely try to frustrate Saint-Etienne with a compact low block and hit them on the break. Considering how Saint-Etienne struggled to break down the defensive setup, Auxerre's counter-attacking style may work.

Auxerre will be buoyed by the 3-0 win over Brest that finally ended a run of four successive defeats. Though their form has been similarly inconsistent, they've shown they can become dangerous, like most counter-attacking units, when they get it right.

Auxerre's away form hasn't been impressive either, yet their victory against Brest should give them some confidence. They are likely to be compact in defense while pouncing on every counter-attacking opportunity that comes their way, especially considering Saint-Etienne can be vulnerable at times by leaving space in defense.

Auxerre's recent victory will boost their morale, though they also know the away form has to be better. Tactically, the counter-attacking style of Auxerre could give problems to a Saint-Etienne defense that has many times been found out of position.

Head to Head

The H2H record is slightly in favor of Auxerre, with three wins against Saint-Etienne's two, but the most frequent result has been a draw-10. Their last clash ended in favor of Saint-Etienne 1-0, further suggesting it could be a close game.

Expert Betting Tips

The safest bet is Both Teams to Score (Yes). Saint-Etienne's defense has been consistently breached this season, while Auxerre, fresh from their confidence-boosting win, should at least get one goal. But weighing in how Saint-Etienne has managed to score at home, both teams should find the net.

Saint-Etienne and Auxerre have seen matches featuring goals lately, even though neither of the sides has been prolific in recent weeks. Over 2.5 goals have been seen in 6 of the last 7 Auxerre matches, but as a rule, high-scoring matches have not happened that often in Saint-Etienne's games. A goal range of 2-3 seems safe because it combines both teams' potential for goals while acknowledging their defensive frailty.

Neither Auxerre nor Saint-Etienne has found consistency this season, and while the former comes into this match fresher from a win, their away form is still suspect. Saint-Etienne might have a slight edge with their home turf, but they have not been impressive enough at the back to suggest that they will manage a win here. Recent struggles by either side and the historical draws in the fixture point towards a stalemate as the most probable outcome.

• GG (Yes) @ 1.69 Odds
• Draw @ 3.45 Odds
• Correct Score 1-1 @ 6.50 Odds