The Stade Vélodrome is hosting a Ligue 1 clash as Olympique Marseille, their bellies churning from a searing losing streak, face a Toulouse side eager to stem the tide of their decline. Marseille's latest 3-1 defeat at Reims has fans on edge—three on the trot and a leaky defense aren't quite the recipe for "title contenders." Toulouse, however, were thrashed 4-2 by Brest, which could make their defense an easy target for the pyrotechnics of Marseille's offense. With injuries piling up on both sides, this Round 28 clash on April 6, 2025, feels like a pressure cooker ready to blow. Will Roberto De Zerbi’s men rediscover their mojo at home, or can Carles Martinez’s underdogs pull off a shock? Expect drama, goals, and maybe a few choice words in the stands—this one’s got all the makings of a classic. Let’s break it down!
Claim Welcome BonusOlympique Marseille
Marseille are stumbling into this one like a bloke who's had too many down at the pub. Five losses in their last six—most recently a 3-1 hammering at the hands of Reims—have left them third on 15 wins, 4 draws, and 8 losses. They had Reims on the back foot at the weekend with 80% possession, 12 corners, and 8 shots on goal, but just Valentin Rongier got on the score sheet. That's the story: mountains of fluff, no punch. Their estimated goals (xG) for the conflict is a tasty 1.99, so chances must be there—if only they could finish it off. The injury list reads like the cast of a horror book: Rubén Blanco, Pierre-Emile Højbjerg, Luiz Felipe, Amine Harit, Feris Moumbagna, and Leonardo Balerdi are on the sidelines.
Roberto De Zerbi has a job on his hands to mend this ship. Step up, Adrien Rabiot—6 goals, 3 assists, and the heartbeat of this side. He's the one to watch, the chap who can win a game with a flick of his boots. Weaknesses? Conceded in last three, conceded first goal in 4 of 5, and creaking at the back. Strengths? Home form's still respectable, and they've got attacking bite when it occurs. Streaks like under 4.5 cards (7/7) and under 10.5 corners (4/5) indicate a keen game—until things go pear-shaped. Marseille need a spark, and the Vélodrome faithful will demand it. Will they stem the rot?
Toulouse
Toulouse are limping into Marseille as if they've lost their way with the GPS. A 4-2 beating by Brest last game—though with goals from Vincent Sierro and Joshua King—dropped them to 11th position with 9 wins, 7 draws, and 11 losses. They dominated with 54% possession, 10 corners, and 4 shots on goal, but their defense imploded like a shabby marquee. An xG of 0.88 for this one suggests they won't be able to do much creating at the Vélodrome. Carles Martinez's side have gone three without a win, conceding in each of them, and their recent run (WWDLL) yells inconsistency. Injuries aren't helping: Rasmus Nicolaisen and Niklas Schmidt are out, with Zakaria Aboukhlal doubtful.
That backline is already shaky, and Marseille's attack could turn ugly against them. In steps Mark McKenzie, the centre-back who is tasked with keeping it all together—he's their rock, but even he can't plug every hole. Strengths? They've got them in this one, with more than 2.5 goals in 4 out of 5 and both teams to score (GG) in 4 out of 5. Weaknesses? That defence is a sieve, and they've not won at Marseille in 15 tries. Streaks like under 4.5 cards (5/7) and under 10.5 corners (8/10) mean a gritty, low-chaos affair—until the net warps. Toulouse could nick a goal, but Marseille shut out? That's a tall order. They'll need a miracle or a Marseille implosion to return with anything.
Head to Head
Marseille have the upper hand traditionally, 49-22 with 29 draws from 100 encounters. Their recent match on August 31, 2024, was a thrashing for Marseille at 3-1, and they're on a 15-match unbeaten streak against Toulouse. Ancient history? More like nail-biting contests and dramatic late goals—this game's never boring. Streaks are in Marseille's favor: over 2.5 goals in 4 out of 5, both teams on the board in 4 out of 5, and Marseille scoring first in 5 out of 7. Under 10.5 corners in 5 out of 7 keeps things tidy and neat. Marseille's home dominance and Toulouse's away woes imply another OM win—unless the wheels spectacularly fall off.
History of Head-to-Heads
Ligue 1 2024/2025
Toulouse
Ligue 1 2024/2025
Marseille
Ligue 1 2023/2024
Marseille
Ligue 1 2023/2024
Toulouse
Ligue 1 2022/2023
Marseille
Marseille Latest Games
Marseille
Rennes
Marseille
Marseille
Brest
Montpellier
Toulouse Latest Games
Toulouse 
Toulouse
Lens
Rennes
Toulouse
Toulouse
Expert Betting Tips
Marseille to Win @ 1.792
Marseille’s home edge and Toulouse’s 15-game winless streak against them make this a banker. Even with their slump, an xG of 1.99 trumps Toulouse’s measly 0.88. De Zerbi’s boys should bully this one.
Both Teams to Score (BTTS) @ 1.727
Toulouse have scored in 4 of their previous 5, and Marseille's back four have leaked goals in their last three. The H2H backs it up too—GG in 4 out of 5. That smells sweet at 1.80!
Over 2.5 Goals @ 1.877
Four of the last five H2H meetings passed 2.5, and Toulouse matches have done likewise in 4 out of 5. Marseille's attack, led by Rabiot, must do this over the line. Plump odds here.
Other predictions
