Olympique Lyon vs Olympique Marseille Prediction: Marseille will boss this fixture

The much-awaited Ligue 1 match will take place on September 22, 2024, between Lyon and Marseille. In the previous 20 matches played between these two sides, the competition has been always close to each other with Lyon having won 9, Marseille having won 5 times, and 6 matches finishing with a draw. So far this season, Lyon has blown hot and cold, finding themselves 13th in the table with 1 win, 1 draw, and 2 losses, while Marseille has hit the ground running and positioned itself 2nd with 3 wins and 1 draw. This fixture could still be one of great intrigue, however, given that both teams are known for tactical intricacies and competitiveness.

Olympique Lyon

Lyon have failed to garner early-season momentum for large swathes of their start. Bright in flashes, the club currently sit with a record of 1 win, 1 draw, and 2 losses, which indicates that they have failed to see out crucial games where the advantage had been there for the taking. Against Lens last week in a goalless draw, they lined up in a shape of 3-5-2, tailored for solidity in the back but one which has yielded scant attacking returns. In that match, Lyon created 8 big chances but didn't convert any into goals. Their possession sat at a moderate 46%, and although they won 51% of their duels, their attack is yet to have fluency.

Stats: Tend to fall behind early, conceding first in 4 of last 5; Fewer than 4.5 cards in 9 of Lyon's last 10; Over 10.5 corners in 4 of the last 5 Lyon matches.

Lyon's 3-5-2 has been balanced in defense, with wide midfielders tracking back and supplementing the defense, but they've often struggled to transition into attack. Recently, Lyon has averaged a good amount of possession, but often bypassing the midfield with long balls. In their current form, Lyon might look to overload the midfield with the intention of dominating the central areas to disrupt Marseille's flowing attack.

But Lyon's inability to convert those chances is cause for worry. Their 8 big chances created against Lens had the eventual outcome of only 3 shots on target, thus indicating some inefficiency in the final third. Defensively, Lyon might want to sort out their knack of conceding first, given Marseille's penchant for starting matches brightly. Their midfield is expected to be very pivotal, and Lyon must have the ball to avoid getting overrun by Marseille's press and catching them on the counter-attack.

Olympique Marseille

Marseille, on the other hand, has had a brilliant beginning to this campaign, unbeaten in the first four games of the season with 3W, 1D. They come into this match on the back of an emphatic 2-0 win against Nice, using a 4-2-3-1 formation. In this game, the attacking intent of the team was evident as they enjoyed 56% of the possession and created 5 shots on target, while creating just 2 big chances. The goals scored by Neal Maupay and Luis Henrique also depicted their firepower from multiple positions.

The style of Marseille underlines effectiveness and directness, with a preference for long balls-33% over crosses-0% crossing rate in their last game. Their defensive resilience was on notice, as they won an impressive 73% of their defending tackles. They have been prolific starters, too, managing to score first in all their last 8 matches and winning the first half in all of them.

Marseilles' 4-2-3-1 has an attacking touch with the inclusion of wingers, one of whom is Luis Henrique, giving width in their attack, hence there is a chance of stretch on the opponent's defense. Their main dependency on long balls rather than a crossing game suggests they try bypassing Lyon's midfield and hit their forwards early. The key strength of Marseille would be their balance in terms of attack and defense, as they won 73% of their defensive tackles while having decent attacking movement.

With Marseille scoring first in every match this season, expect Marseille to press high in the early stages. The central midfield duo will look to run the show in Lyon's midfield five, disrupting them and forcing turnovers to result in quick transition moments. Given that Lyon have such a poor conversion rate and tend to concede first, Marseille would likely be on top from the front foot early in the game and may try to capitalize on the defensive vulnerabilities of Lyon.

Head to Head

Historically, there has been little to choose between Lyon and Marseille. In their last 20 matches against each other, Lyon comes out on top with 9 wins; Marseille has managed just 5 victories, with 6 matches finishing all square. Generally speaking, these games are quite tight and low-scoring, filled with discipline and tactical caution.

That Lyon dominates at home is true, as they won the last meeting between the two sides in February 2024, a 1-0 victory at Groupama Stadium.

Recent tussles have seen low card counts with less than 4.5 cards shown in 6 straight games.

Moreover, there has been a trend of fewer corners in these matches, with under 10.5 corners coming out in six of the last seven meetings between them.

Expert Betting Tips

Lyon vs. Marseille-The match sets the two polar approaches against each other: Lyon with a defensive-minded 3-5-2, looking to absorb the pressure, and Marseille in an aggressive 4-2-3-1, looking to force an early advantage. Although Lyon have boasted a strong home record through the years, Marseille's form going into this match, combined with their tactical discipline, gives them a significant edge in this fixture. Marseille is likely to dominate possession and chances, while Lyon may struggle to cope with their pace and precision.

Marseille have opened the scoring in eight consecutive matches. Lyon have conceded the first goal in four of their last five matches. With Marseille's quick starts and Lyon's inability to defend, the visiting side is likely to open the scoring once again.

Generally, both sides have shown clean play; Lyon has seen under 4.5 cards in 9 of their last 10, while Marseille has had under 4.5 cards in 6 of the last 6 head-to-head meetings. This tie is likely to follow suit.

Over 10.5 corners have been seen in four of Lyon's last five matches. Their setup, particularly at the back, always invites corner kicks because they lack midfield control. This fact combined with Marseille's attacking setup makes this a fixture highly likely to see over 10.5 corners.

• Away to Score First @ 1.82 Odds
• Away/Draw & Under 4.5 Goals @ 1.73 Odds
• Over 10 Corners @ 1.72 Odds