OGC Nice vs Saint-Etienne Prediction: Nice are desperate to win

The forthcoming Ligue 1 match on September 20, 2024, between OGC Nice and AS Saint-Étienne will be quite an interesting battle. Both teams have failed to impress in the early parts of the season, with Nice currently positioned 12th and Saint-Étienne at 16th. While Nice will have the advantage of playing on their home turf at Allianz Riviera, both sides have some essential tactical issues and problems in form. Given their head-to-head historical record and respective recent form, there is much at stake in this match as both sides look to push themselves out of the lower mid-table.

OGC Nice

Nice currently sit 12th, which reflects a real inconsistency to start the season. With a record of 1 win, 1 draw, and 2 losses, they have undoubtedly underperformed given the quality within their squad. A recent 2-0 loss to Marseille exposed some of the defensive frailties they have often faced at times during the start of the season, despite fashioning 4 big chances. Playing in the 3-4-3 formation, Nice created opportunities but were not clinical enough in finishing them; they had only 4 shots on target. Their possession in the match-44%-is indicative of how much they struggled to dominate that game, although they kept a good balance between defensive and attacking duties. In that match, they won 83% of their defending tackles and 51% of duels, but they still allowed two goals to expose them in their defensive shape. Other stats came as: 44% of possession, 4 big chances created-something to suggest the offensive potential of the team; 83% defending tackles won, yet the team still allowed as many as 11 goals in their last 5 matches.

Nice tend to give away early goals, and though they have been resilient for the first goal in 8 of their last 10 matches, defensive lapses remain a big worry. They have also hit under 10.5 corners in 4 of their last 5 games, which simply shows that they don't really hold sustained offense.

Under Franck Haise, Nice will most probably stick to their three-man rearguard packed in a 3-4-3 formation. Indeed, there has been much emphasis on high pressing in such a system and flexibility in the wide areas. This role is usually dependent on the wing-backs, as it falls upon them to provide crosses into the box from further ahead.

Their defense, however, needs to be better organized, especially against teams that resort to counter-attacks-Saint-Étienne being one of them. The ability of Nice to press high may be utilized to take advantage of Saint-Étienne's weaknesses in build-up of play; their forwards will just have to show more ruthlessness in converting the chances they create since against Marseille, they were able to create 4 big chances but never converted them.

In this setup, both central midfielders are going to be important in winning duels and keeping the ball to ensure Nice control the tempo of the game. They could easily shift between high-pressing and possession football, but they are going to need to minimize defensive errors if they are going to hold out any hope of taking all three points.

Saint-Étienne

Saint-Étienne are having an even poorer start than Nice, ranking 16th with only 1 win and 3 losses. They have performed inconsistently in attack and defense. Last week's result-a narrow 1-0 home win against Lille-was one of the few bright spots so far this season, as Saint-Étienne had only 29% possession. Their emphasis on compact defending, exemplified by playing a 4-1-4-1 shape, helped them to grind out the win. They managed only 5 shots on target and 2 big chances, proving they can be clinical if opportunities do come their way, but the overall attacking output is clearly limited.

Other important stats were: 29% possession in their last match was indicative of a low possession, counter-attacking approach, 36% long balls suggest a direct method of transition, and Their defensive success rate in tackles was solid at 73%.

The defensive record is also not impressive for Etienne, conceding first in 5 of their last 6 matches. Even though they won against Lille, they do have 4 defeats in the last 5 matches. Cards also have under 4.5 in 7 of their last 9 and corners under 10.5 from 4 of their last 5.

Saint-Étienne, under Oliver Dall’Oglio, will most probably revert to their 4-1-4-1 setup for this match. Expect them to set up in a low-block defensive shape with rapid transitions to attack. It won't be out of character if they look to long balls-they played 36% of their passes long in the last match-and fast counters to hurt Nice. The lone striker will hold the ball as much as possible to bring the midfielders into play. From midfield, the creative passing and goal-scoring outlets will continue to come through Cafaro, who scored the winner against Lille.

Their ability to play a low-possession game means they'll likely concede possession to Nice and look to frustrate their hosts. Saint-Étienne's strong tackle success rate of 73% in their last match will be important in breaking up play, but they'll need to show more offensive intention if they hope to get a positive result away from home.

Head to Head

OGC Nice and AS Saint-Étienne have traditionally had one of the hottest, neck-and-neck contests in Ligue 1. In the last 20 matches, Saint-Étienne has led with 9 wins to Nice's 8 victories, drawing 3 times apiece. That is indicative of how well their record is between the two, showing how competitive their games tend to get.

Recent meetings have gone the way of Nice, though. The most recent head-to-head, in May 2022, saw the hosts win convincingly 4-2, showing the attacking qualities of Nice. In addition, their head-to-head matches have been pretty rich in goals, with over 2.5 goals scored in 6 of the last 7 games. They tend to see a lot of set pieces too, with over 10.5 corners in 5 of the last 7 games.

Expert Betting Tips

This could be a closely contested match, with Nice trying to get back on track after struggling in the last few matches, while Saint-Étienne will try to build on momentum from their last win. Nice creates so many opportunities but cannot seem to find the finishing touch, whereas Saint-Étienne is tight in defense but does very little in attack. Nice's pressing game and better possession statistics are likely to give the visitors control of the match, but this may also mean Saint-Étienne can remain in the match on the counter-attack. At the end of it all, Nice's superior home form and attacking potential should see them through.

Both teams have been experiencing low corners lately, and this should be one that continues, with Nice maintaining direct attacks and Saint-Étienne very conservative. Under 10.5 corners will likely be maintained in this game to keep current trends.

While Nice does have their defensive vulnerabilities, Saint-Étienne can use that to their advantage and exploit it with their swift counters for a goal or two. Both teams will find the net, but Nice should outscore their opponents.

• Under 10 Corners @ 1.727 Odds
• Home Win @ 1.67 Odds
• Correct Score 2:1 @ 8.50 Odds