Cleveland Cavaliers vs Miami Heat: Close game in the making?

The NBA betting scene is up-and-down and see, people, don’t roll your eyes if a missed free throw or a made shot or a late cold spell make or break bets by a difference of a point or so. Since I have started giving tips related to the betting scene, around 33% of bets have been close calls, decided in the last seconds. In another challenging betting affair, the high-scoring Cavaliers meet an injury-inflicted Heat? Can Heat win with a depleted squad? For a quick overview, head to the “Notes” section.

Comparisons: Improving teams

Life for Heat without Butler-Adebayo: Heat has won three and lost three games without Jimmy Butler and Bam Adebayo. First, they had trouble adjusting on the defensive end, giving up 111-124 points which was not the norm with Jimmy and Bam. But in the last two games, the Lowry-led squad has held a dynamite scoring team in Bucks to 104 and Bulls to 92, although the latter is itself short-handed. Offensively, the team has scored 113 or more thrice in the last five games and Lowry has been both scoring and playmaking at a higher clip. Robinson had 26 in the last game, Caleb Martin had 28 against the Bucks and different actors are stepping up in different stages for the depleted Heat.

Cavaliers hot offensive form: When Sexton went down, Cavaliers had trouble on the offensive but then they turned things around the last week of November. In six of the last nine games, Cleveland has generated 111-123 points and weak defensive units have had no chance against them. This uptick in scoring can largely be attributed to the elevated play of Darius Garland who is chipping in with 20+ points and 10+ assists consistently. Jarrett Allen can line up 15-25 points while Mobley, Markkanen, and Love, the three big Forwards can combine for 35-50 points consistently. Cedi Osman and Ricky Rubion bring scoring and playmaking respectively while the whole Cavs offensive system has hit new strides every game.

Match-ups: Kyle Lowry-Darius Garland match-up is intriguing because both players are incredible scorers and passers. It will not be a surprise if their output is close to each other, this is an evenly matched-up position. From the Forward to Center spot, I think with Mobley, Markkanen, and Allen, the Cavs can outmatch the Heat team offensively but defensively having PJ Tucker at big Forward can help the Heat cause against the physicality of the Cavs. The Cavs seem to have a slightly better bench than the Heat as of now with three players in Love, Rubio, and Osman, all being steady scorers. For Heat, Tyler Herro is of course a major difference-maker. The Heat has advantage at the guard spot while Cavs have a sturdy Forward lineup advantage. And this is all assuming if most of these players are healthy and are not injured or placed in COVID-19 protocols.

Notes

Here are some quick hitters related to the game:

• Cavaliers have scored 117, 123, 115, 104, 108 in the last five games;
• Cavaliers have allowed 103, 106, 92, 112, 109 in the last five games;
• Heat has scored 118, 113, 90, 102, 113, 85, 111 in the last five matches;
• Heat has allowed 92, 104,105, 124, 104, 111, 120 in the last five games;
• Cavaliers have won seven and lost seven games at home. They have a better record away from home;
• Miami Heat has won eight games and lost seven games away frome;
• Cavaliers beat the Heat 111:85 the last time these two met;
• Kyle Lowry has figured in the 16-26 points range in absence of Butler while dishing 9-14 assists consistently each game;
• Duncan Robinson scored 26 in the last game which was his season high;
• Tyler Herro has scored in the 17-22 points range mostly;
• Dewayne Dedmon has racked up 12 or more rebounds in two of the last four games;
• Darius Garland has dished 12 or more assists in the last two games;
• Jarrett Allen has scored 21 or more points in two of the last four games;
• Bam Adebayo is out and will not return this month and probably even by January. Jimmy Butler is out for the game while Markief Morris also remains out;
• Brook Lopez is out for the Cavaliers. Donte DiVincenzo is close to making his season debut but he is unlikely to play here;
• Do check the injury lists before placing bets.

Expert Betting tips

Points Total Range: Both teams have shown the ability to put up points and for Heat, that has been a huge relief as the squad is short-handed. The Cavs are showcasing tremendous scoring talent and they can score in the 110-120 points range while Heat is more in the 105-115 points range. But I will tell you what I feel. I have a feeling that this is not going to be a high-scorer that gets in the 225-240 points range. I think the total points range here is 207-218.

Prediction: Cavaliers are healthier, playing at their home floor and have beaten Miami once before. But what do I feel? I think this will be a close affair, I am afraid to pick a winner because I think Miami might have figured out how to run the system without Bam and Butler. I believe this will be a close game with a scoreline of something 107:103.

Betting Options

• Total: Over 207.5 for 1.95;
• Points Spread: Miami Heat +4.5 for 1.95;
• Player Props: Player Points: Kyle Lowry: Over 16.5 for 1.90.