Trend 3: Cloud services are promoted through a new generation of networked appliances. In 2011 we’ll see cloud-services-based content and features battle app-delivered content and features for acceptance. The winner will be in control of the user or customer experience in the future. Smartphones changed the network appliance market, but their small form factors limit their impact on both entertainment and enterprise computing. The larger form factor of tablets and increased competition there will open the door for new applications in both spaces, which creates new opportunities and risks for operators and vendors. The wars between Apple, Google/Android, RIM and even the Intel/Nokia MeeGo alliance will create smarter devices with more service features migrating into applications and GUIs, rather than being supported by in- or on-network servers. HTML5 is particularly likely to be a battleground here.
Mobile apps essentially disconnect the user from the Web, making online applications look like an extension of the device’s GUI. That undermines the incumbency of portal or OTT giants. It also makes it harder for network operators to establish their own brands and introduce new services that end users are willing to pay for. An appliance is also perfect for a “URL store” cloud service, but it may be difficult to reconcile this with appliance vendors’ desires to create applications unique to their devices.
Trend 4: Network operators find growing roles in advertising. Operators know more about the consumer than anyone and are more likely to be trusted to protect consumer information -- in no small part because operators are subject to regulatory oversight. Operators are already considering a new model of advertising where they “pull” ads by category using customer data analytics. This protects customer information far better than syndicating tracking and demographic data to advertisers to permit ad selection.
Advertisers are warming to the idea that network operators can play a greater role in matching ads to consumer profiles. Advertisers fear that the current system, where websites track and potentially syndicate customer information, will lead to regulations and uncertainty about advertising practices at a critical time in the evolving online content market. As a result, operators will have an opportunity to make money in 2011 while supporting an increasingly popular industry view.
Trend 5: The telecom industry faces increased confusion and conflict in regulatory policies. Existing regulations and market practice in the telecom industry are already under scrutiny in three areas: net neutrality and traffic handling, copyright protection and peer-to-peer (P2P) communications, and consumer privacy and tracking. Issues of lawful intercept will also get attention in a world increasingly transitioning to broadband, as will the use of text or other non-voice alternatives that can be used for contacting E911 providers.
It’s clear that the explosion of Internet use and the number of applications for Internet services and connectivity have combined to outrun public policy and regulations. In addition, every stakeholder in the Internet business is looking to gain market advantage through favorable regulatory treatment. In 2011, all of this will be complicated by the uncertain state of the world economy and the political tension resulting from consumer uncertainty.
Under the best conditions, reaching national accord on any one of the three key issues will be difficult, and differences among the world’s major economies in regulations in any of these three areas will create difficulties with online service fulfillment and consumer protection. The U.S. and Europe have taken different positions on net neutrality already, something that could cause disruption among all of the Internet’s players and vendors.
Disorder will also come from the FCC’s legal foundation for its December net neutrality order, which is similar to the one already rejected by the U.S. Court of Appeals. That almost guarantees further legal issues, another possible reversal of the FCC by the courts, and threats of legislation or additional regulation. If this isn’t sorted out reasonably, it could be the top problem of the year for network operators.
Tom Nolle is president of CIMI Corp.
This article originally appeared on SearchTelecom.com