The main CS:GO tournament of the season comes to Latin America for the first time. Local fans are rejoicing: the long-suffering event postponed twice after 2020 will finally start on schedule. Undoubtedly, the forthcoming major in Rio is the most expected one in CS:GO history. Only last year's PGL Stockholm, which became the first Valve event after the online period, can argue with this status. However, despite the lower prize fund ($1,250,000), several factors support the Brazilian tournament. Besides the final stage of the Intel Grand Slam series and trips to Abu Dhabi and Katowice at stake, important historical lines within the pro scene will develop there. We will tell you about the main of them in our material.
Will a Brazilian team win its home tournament?
Katowice and Cologne are believed to be the "world Counter-Strike capitals," without considering the size of the audience on the other side of the ocean. FalleN's career, the era of Luminosity/SK in 2016-2017, and gaules's content environment are doing their thing: the Antwerp major on the channel of the country's main streamer was watched by 700 thousand people. The grandstands will definitely be full. The players and teams also try to keep the bar high: at least ten Brazilian players have taken part in each major since 2019. IEM Rio is no exception, as three Brazilian teams from the HLTV top 30 will come to please the local audience: FURIA, Imperial, and 00NATION. We should also note the special status of the showmatch, where the team of Swedish stars will compete against the golden roster of Luminosity-2016.
It is interesting that arT and co will start their way from the preliminary stage but are still rated high by experts and betting companies. The reason for this low slot was the American RMR tournament: FURIA and its compatriots unexpectedly lost against the "dark horses" (such as Evil Geniuses and 9z). As a result, none of the three teams even made it to the tiebreak for a place on the main stage. KSCERATO is now the team's hope: once the most promising local rifler set a high bar again, having played in the ESL Pro League Season 16 with a 1.34 rating. FURIA's success at this year's LAN tournaments is attributed solely to the rise of Kaike Cerato, but there's nothing else to boast about. There have been rumors for a year about finding a replacement for drop, and its coach guerri is missing another major because of the ban. That's why we can safely talk about making it through the Challengers Stage, but getting to the Legends playoff will be a huge success in the current circumstances.
Imperial and 00NATION are worth a separate paragraph. Aside from the "Luminosity legacy" kept by two divergent groups (coldzera/TACO and FalleN/fer/fnx), they have similar chances to win. Betting companies place both teams from the HLTV top 30 in the same group of odds — from 25 to 50 on average. Ironically, the country's most prominent teams are behind the strongest representative — FURIA. There are different reasons for that: 00NATION acquired GODSENT players before the summer break, achieved good team-work, but never got past the group stage in major tournaments. Perhaps, coldzera has passed the point of no return to his former level and gives up the initiative to younger players, now having around the 1.00 ranking. Imperial has recently signed chelo and made fnx a coach. The move looks more of a formality, so there is no de facto qualified head behind the Last Dance. The only reason that might get Imperial unexpectedly high would be FalleN's desire to slam the door. The legendary captain hasn't announced he would quit officially, but the working name of his current roster — Last Dance — speaks in favor of it. A high place at the only home major will be the best reason to call it his last major. Or, on the contrary, the best reason not to quit the game. We will find out after the tournament.
What are the favorites' chances?
The situation when experts do not name a clear leader on the pro scene before the major is becoming typical. This happened before Natus Vincere's win in Stockholm and before FaZe's win in Antwerp, and, interestingly enough, it always resulted in short-term dominance. If the tradition continues, the triple duel between FaZe, Natus Vincere, and Vitality will be decisive for the next six months.
Karrigan's team will have two goals in Rio. Firstly, after the era of Astralis, no team has become the major champion twice. For many, it is this achievement that provides the "era" status. Secondly, this championship will give FaZe at least $1.5 million, not including sticker sales. It's all about the Intel Grand Slam: the team needs only one championship to get gold bars. You can read what can go wrong in the material's last section.
If we talk about the bookmakers' quotes, Natus Vincere is most likely to win the major. This year, the team is having a hard time: even if we consider the period before Boombl4 left, it won only one major tournament out of six in 10 months. We shouldn't also forget about sdy's current position: a full-fledged transfer hasn't been announced, and Viktor Orudzhev has been a stand-in for five months. The organization itself probably doesn't know what will happen tomorrow. The Rio trophy will be a strong argument for preserving the current roster because it will open up a new goal for the team — a second consecutive victory at Intel Grand Slam.
As for Vitality, it looks like a surprise team among such titled competitors. Its win at ESL Pro League has complicated everything: Vitality took first place in the difficult group stage and had a rocky path in the playoff. The team didn't consolidate its success and lost its chances to participate in the BLAST Fall Finals. The guys will start IEM Rio from the Challengers stage and therefore, will have to make it through two qualifying barriers. Vitality's results at the major will also be decisive: it's a chance for dupreeh to prove that kassad was wrong calling him the team's "weak link." Of course, we expect that ZywOo's drive will influence the final results, but we cannot deny the main thing — the Vitality players finally play together, showing the balance of power in all roles.
What should we expect from the Russian teams?
Compared to the Antwerp major, the number of Russian teams decreased from four to three. What is interesting is that each stage (from Challengers to Legends) has one Russian team. It is good because they will rarely cross paths before the main stage and will be able to advance to the playoff without losses. It sounds like a utopia, but all three teams are in equally good conditions before IEM Rio.
Despite its performance, Cloud9 is expected to proceed at least to the playoff. It's hard to talk about its level of preparation. The roster rarely performs at LAN tournaments, that's why its playing style is noticeably different each time it returns. It may either play a cruel joke on the team or help it surprise its future opponents in Rio. Bookmakers share this view, estimating the chances for the trophy at odds no higher than 10 and placing groove's team in the top eight.
The situation with Outsiders and Spirit is not as clear. The former has been encouraged by its victory at ESL Challenger in Rotterdam and participation in the ESL Pro League playoff. It doesn't change experts' opinion globally: "a stable strong tier-2 team." Considering the poor seed in the preliminary stage, which identified MOUZ as an opponent of the Outsiders, this competition won't be a cakewalk. The question is how much of that vigor will be enough to maintain the bar set in the fall. Spirit has reached its peak with the current quality of the game. If Outsiders are known for their stability, the "Dragons" cannot provide it. Roughly speaking, its win over Cloud9 at the distance at RMR seems a bit unfair: the outcome of the decisive Ancient sort of changed the more logical slots for Russian teams. Inflated expectations about Spirit will be a mistake. But don't forget about its getting to the semi-final stage in Antwerp when no one expected a high place from the "Dragons." Perhaps, it is at majors where the guys demonstrate all their potential.
Who will become the championship MVP?
There are two obvious and two surprising candidates.
- The first obvious candidate is s1mple. Oleksandr has proved that he can be the most valuable player even if his team doesn't get the gold. The community unfairly ignores s1mple's candidacy for the top 1 of 2022, referring to the difficult period on Natus Vincere: remember how he became the best in 2018. If you filter the current stats for LAN tournaments and matches against the top 30, he still holds the lead with a rating of 1.28. Conclusion: regardless of the team's performance (in the range of 1st-4th places), s1mple can once again show a level of play that is worth a medal. He has done it thrice, stopping one step away from the trophy.
- The second obvious candidate is any star player from FaZe. Considering the past events, it could be broky, rain, or ropz. The main factor is the championship of the team, which is the favorite at the major. If the impressive performance of one of these players leads to this fall's triumph, he will definitely receive the MVP medal.
- The first non-obvious candidate is ZywOo. The case could mirror if Vitality didn't have a "dark horse" status. While Oleksandr Kostyliev has to reach the semi-finals, for Mathieu Herbaut's team, getting to the playoff is a predictable but tiring scenario. If Vitality mistakes before the semi-finals, ZywOo will 100% remain without a medal.
- The first non-obvious candidate is sh1ro or Ax1Le. This is where the above situation can be applied. The only way to get the MVP title for both is to take the team to the IEM Rio finals and perform brighter than any potential finalist or champion.
Will the destiny of the Intel Grand Slam be decided in Rio?
Let us remind you of the current state of affairs: FaZe must win only one tournament to get $1 million with gold bars. If they don't do it in Rio, they will still continue their fight at ESL Pro League tournaments and any forthcoming IEM. Vitality and Cloud9 have one victory in their collection, but victory at IEM Rio is only half the battle. Any other team's championship (for example, Natus Vincere or FURIA) will include that team in the race regardless of its results at past tournaments. The last option will be the most beneficial for FaZe as it will prevent it from a competitor with two championships for another couple of months.
The chances for bars in November are significant: the average odds for the championship (about 4-5) make FaZe an undisputed favorite in all lines. On the other hand, after the poor performance at ESL Pro League, karrigan spoke of the "5% problem." According to the captain, the team lacks confidence in communication and individual skills after the summer break. If this factor becomes decisive again, as it was in Malta in September, FaZe may be left behind only with the status of a playoff participant. It will hardly be a big problem for the team which will get at least two chances to win at the Intel Grand Slam. Even in the worst-case scenario, in which Vitality and Cloud9 start to step on their toes.
The IEM Rio Major Challengers stage matches started on October 31 at 14:00 (UTC+0). This will be a Swiss-system tournament where the eight best teams of each stage will go further. The playoff stage will be held from November 10 to 13 at the Jeunesse Arena in Rio which has hosted League of Legends and Rainbow Six tournaments. We wish the teams good luck and the audience a pleasant viewing and positive emotions!
