Ballon d’Or 2024 Prediction, Probability, and Winner Odds: Rodri Gets Euro Boost, But Vinicius Jr. Still the Favourite

The race for the 2024 Ballon d’Or is becoming hotter each day, but we can now go back to bed and expect the decisions from the organisers. This year will be the 68th edition of the event, and the award will be based on the performance of footballers in the world for the 2023/24 season. For the first time, UEFA will co-organize the Ballon d'Or gala alongside France Football. The event is expected to be held on the 28th of October 2024, with the nomination list expected to be out on the 4th of September 2024. Vinícius Jr. has been leading the race before the summer international events, but Rodri seemed ready to wrestle it with him. Below are analyses of the contenders, probability and odds.

Bet on Ballon d’Or 2024 with Bet365
PlayerCountryClubWinner OddsProbability
Vinícius Jr.BrazilReal Madrid1.8354.6%
RodriSpainManchester City2.5040%
Jude BellinghamEnglandReal Madrid8.0012.5%
Dani CarvajalSpainReal Madrid15.006.7%
Lamine YamalSpainBarcelona21.004.8%
Lionel MessiArgentinaInter Miami26.003.8%
Nico WilliamsSpainAthletic Bilbao34.002.9%
Lázaro MartínezArgentinaInter Milan41.002.4%
Kylian MbappéFrancePSG*41.002.4%
Toni KroosGermanyReal Madrid41.002.4%
Harry KaneEnglandBayern Munich41.002.4%
Phil FodenEnglandManchester City51.002.0%
Unai SimonSpainAthletic Bilbao67.001.5%
Julian AlvarezArgentinaManchester City67.001.5%
Erling HaalandNorwayManchester City67.001.5%
Emiliano MartínezArgentinaAston Villa81.001.2%
Cristiano RonaldoPortugalAl Nassr101.001.0%
Kevin de BruyneBelgiumManchester City101.001.0%
Florian WirtzGermanyLeverkusen101.001.0%
  • *Kylian Mbappé has now completed a transfer to Real Madrid.
Vinícius Jr.RodriJude Bellingham
Appearances425649
Goals261025
Assists111414
Vinícius Jr.
Vinícius Jr.

Vinícius Jr. remains the frontrunner in the Ballon d’Or 2024 race despite having a bad Copa América 2024 campaign. At the competition, Vinícius and Brazil couldn’t make it past the quarterfinals, but what Vini had done for Real Madrid during the 2023/2024 season has still kept him up until this stage. Vini was crowned the 2023/24 UEFA Champions League Player of the Season by the UEFA's Technical Observer panel after an eventful season with Real Madrid in the Champions League, scoring six goals and providing five assists in the competition.

Individual Honours and Titles

  • UEFA Champions League
  • La Liga title
  • Spanish Super Cup
  • UEFA Champions League Player of the Season
  • UEFA Champions League Team of the Season
  • La Liga Team of the Season
  • Supercopa top scorer
  • La Liga Player of the Month: March 2024
  • 2023 Samba Gold
Bet on Ballon d’Or 2024 with Bet365
Rodri
Rodri

Rodri became a new face in the Ballon d’Or race after a successful Euro 2024. However, despite this new support for Rodri to win the Ballon d’Or, I don’t think he deserves the hype. Any player who wasn’t in the race before the international competition is not worthy to be seen as a favourite. His fate can be compared to 2021 Jorginho. He got all the hype but later came third in the race. It won’t be a surprise if Rodri finishes 3rd this year as well.

Individual Honours and Titles

  • FIFA Club World Cup
  • UEFA European Championship
  • UEFA Super Cup
  • English Premier League
  • English FA Cup runner-up
  • FIFA Club World Cup Golden Ball
  • UEFA European Championship Player of the Tournament
  • Globe Soccer Awards Best Midfielder of the Year
  • UEFA European Championship Team of the Tournament
  • The Athletic European Men's Team of the Season
Jude Bellingham
Jude Bellingham

Jude Bellingham was undoubtedly the best player in the first part of the season, scoring 14 goals in his first 15 games for Real Madrid. He broke Cristiano Ronaldo’s record of 13 goals in his first 15 games for the club. However, the hype dropped before the end of the season, and he also missed out on the chance of getting back the hype at the Euro 2024 despite scoring crucial goals for England and winning the silver medal with England. Bellingham won the Best Young Player of the 2023-24 UEFA Champions League. He had four goals and five assists in 11 Champions League games.

Individual Honours and Titles

  • UEFA Champions League
  • La Liga
  • Spanish Super Cup
  • UEFA European Championship runner-up
  • La Liga League Player of the Season
  • UEFA Champions League Young Player of the Season
  • UEFA Champions League Team of the Season
  • La Liga Team of the Season
  • La Liga Player of the Month: August 2023 and October 2023
  • Globe Soccer Awards Emerging Player of the Year
  • Laureus World Breakthrough of the Year
  • The Athletic European Player of the Season
  • The Athletic European Young Player of the Season
  • The Athletic European Men's Team of the Season
Bet on Ballon d’Or 2024 with Bet365

FAQs:

Is Messi nominated for the Ballon d'Or in 2024?
The official nomination of the 2024 Ballon d'Or will be announced on September 4, 2024. However, Messi, though not a strong contender, will likely make the nomination after his Copa America 2024 success.
What time is the Ballon d'Or 2024?
The 2024 Ballon d'Or is scheduled to be held on October 28th, 2024, at the Théâtre du Châtelet, Paris. The nomination list will be out on September 4, 2024. The event is expected to start at 18:00 GMT.
Who deserves the Ballon d'Or in 2024?
Different people with different perspectives but clear indications still show that Vinícius Jnr. is still the frontrunner in the race.
Who is the favourite to win the Ballon d'Or?
According to bookmakers, Vinicius has a 54.6% chance of winning the Golden Ball.
How many Ballon d'Ors does Messi have?
After winning the 2023 edition of the Ballon d'Or, Messi now has a record 8 Ballon d'Or golden balls.
Who won the first Ballon d'Or?
Stanley Matthews of England won the first Ballon d'Or in history in 1956.
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