Yulia Starodubtsewa vs Coco Gauff Prediction: Yulia deserves to win a set

The 2024 WTA Beijing quarterfinal will pit Yulia Starodubtsewa against Coco Gauff. This is a case of opposites colliding, with Starodubtsewa, 115th in the world, being the in-form underdog oozing confidence, whereas Gauff is ranked 6th and an elite talent who has been in great form of late, even though it was one of those tricky matches which ended with Naomi Osaka's retirement.

Coming into this match, Yulia Starodubtsewa is undefeated in a winning streak of 9 of the last 10 matches. In her last match against Anna Kalinskaya, she outplayed her opponent 7-5, 6-0. She was extremely dominant when on offense, and while playing defensively, she managed to win 80% of her second-serve points and converted 5 break points in that match, proving that she handles stress pretty well. On a 6-game and 12-set winning streak coming into play, Starodubtsewa showed the capacity to overcome opponents at crucial junctures.

The key to success for her will be holding the rallies long and testing Gauff's second serve, which has been a little vulnerable lately. With high return percentages-41% on first serves and a whopping 64% on second serves-Starodubtsewa can be aggressive early in the point, pinning Gauff back. This means that Starodubtsewa will have to maintain a high level of performance on her own service, especially on the second serve, where she was very effective against Kalinskaya. She should be focused on her return game and capitalize on the errors of Gauff.

Although the second serve of Starodubtsewa went remarkably well, taking 92% of points, that of Gauff was pretty poor, winning only 37% of points. If Starodubtseva can expose the weakness in Gauff's second serve, she will have the upper hand in baseline exchanges.

She comes into this match on a six-match win streak and beat her opponent in straight sets the last time they faced off.

Given her recent streak and current form, Starodubtsewa seems like she can play without the shackles of fear, which might enable her to pull off an upset if Gauff is inconsistent.

Coco Gauff is having a fantastic season but not as sharp over the last 10 matches, posting a 7W and 3L. The victory over Naomi Osaka was shortened at 6-3, 4-6 due to Osaka's injury. Coco's serve has stayed solid, can be prone, just like it was, when she hit 6 aces in her last match with only 37% success on her second serve. Her return game was impressive, though, converting 5 break points and winning 44% of the first-serve return points against an abstruse opponent.

She will look to enforce her fitness and strong baseline game. For that, Gauff needs to be more consistent with the second serve as Starodubtsewa has been getting a sniff of easy points. All in all, she can trouble her opponent by creating aces and taking control with the forehand; however, she has to hone her serve-and-volley game to keep Starodubtsewa from hitting aggressive returns. An aggressive start, particularly with Starodubtsewa's second serves, may be all it takes for Gauff to start and take control of the match.

This strong first serve by Gauff-6 aces in her last match-may continue to keep her in control, provided she can contain her double faults.

She comes into this match having played a shortened match against Osaka. That could slightly disrupt her rhythm.

It gives her an edge mentally with the experience she has gained during high-pressure moments and just how well she actually closed a few tight matches.

Given Coco's ranking, experience in higher matches, and athleticism, she should win. But Starodubtsewa will make it competitive, especially her current form, in pushing Gauff in longer rallies.

Expect a close encounter, but the better game of Gauff on serve and shot-making should see her through.

I'd be expecting a long rally from both players and probably trading sets. That will take the match over 21.5 games.

• Over 18.5 Games @ 1.68 Odds
• Over 19.5 Games @ 1.82 Odds
• Total 3 Sets @ 3.00 Odds