Shelby Rogers vs Jessica Pegula Prediction: Count on Jessica Pegula

On September 27th, 2024, two Americans face each other in the round of 128 of the US Open. Shelby Rogers and Jessica Pegula will set the tone in the hope of doing good for themselves in the tournament, as they meet in one of the largest arenas for tennis.

Shelby Rogers is an aggressive player who can often dictate with her forehand and serve, hit through the court. This makes her a dangerous player on faster surfaces, as in the hard courts of the US Open. Her game can get a bit inconsistent at times, very much so when she's forced into long rallies or defensive positions. Rogers will probably focus on holding onto short points and therefore attempt to break Pegula's rhythm with power. While Rogers' first serve is a huge weapon, she needs a high first-serve percentage to not be put on the back foot. She'll look to dominate with her forehand and take control of the rallies early. Expect Rogers to be very aggressive, trying to end points very quickly. Focus on the forehand side to create errors.

Jessica Pegula is an extremely consistent and tactically astute player. Unlike Rogers, Pegula doesn't just rely on brute force but on actually constructing a point with precision and variety. It is this ability to neutralize big hitters, really a function of her extension capabilities in rallies, that frustrates more aggressive players like Rogers. Indeed, Pegula will exploit Rogers' inconsistency, particularly on the return of serve and in longer baseline exchanges. One critical aspect of this match might be Pegula's return game, particularly on the second serve. She'll probably want to get involved in longer rallies with Rogers, where she has a clear advantage on footwork and tactical smarts, just looking to suck out errors. Pegula will look to maintain an excellent first-serve percentage, moving Rogers around the court and getting in on those moments when the form could falter.

Everything is set for lapidary strife with two players who feature a game with grossly contrasting styles. Despite Pegula holding a big edge here, Rogers can certainly make it a closely competitive match.

Pegula comes into the match in fine form with developmental consistency. She has been able to handle power hitters and extend rallies. The latter should expose Rogers' tendency for inconsistency in longer exchanges. Pegula performs better in recent high-level tournaments, indicative that she is in form going into Flushing Meadows.

If Rogers can keep her first-serve percentage high and land forehands with consistency, she may really disrupt Pegula's rhythm in a way that could score the upset, especially if she can win that first set. If Rogers starts playing well earlier, this match might go three sets, and in a decider, the mental fortitude and experience of Pegula might prevail.

• Under 18.5 Games at 1.62 Odds
• Rogers Shelby (+6.5) Games Handicap at 1.95 Odds
• First Set Over 8.5 Games at 1.80 Odds