The much-anticipated US Open 2024 Final pits the world No.1 from Italy, Jannik Sinner, against American talent Taylor Fritz, currently ranked 12th in the world, in what is expected to be an electric encounter. During the length and breadth of this tournament, both have been on a tear, each displaying tenacity, staying power, and skill as they remain standing for this summit match. Sinner's consistency and aggressive baseline game come up against Fritz's powerful serving and resilience. Both of these modern-day titans are in for quite a thrilling contest with the prestigious Grand Slam title hanging in the balance.
Jannik Sinner (ATP #1)
Jannik Sinner heads into the final with lots of steam, having dispensed with his opponents clinically efficiently. Sinner has been near perfect as he dropped just two sets en route to the final. His run included victories over Mackenzie McDonald, Alex Michelsen, Christopher O'Connell, Tommy Paul, and giant scalp Daniil Medvedev. In the last four, he beat Jack Draper in straight sets 7-5, 7-6, 6-2.
Most of the successes of Sinner have been realized through his powerful and precise baseline game, complemented by an ability to hit winners from any position on the court. Aggressive, he managed to dictate play and was often able to force his opponents to defend deep. The serve has also been a weapon for Sinner: he has a solid 65% first serve percentage and was almost unbreakable on second serves, winning 94% of points in the semifinal against Draper.
The most important part of Sinner's game is his shot selection. He knows exactly when to pull the trigger for the big shots and when to play conservatively. With the high-intensity rallies, and the risks he always takes on the long ones, he may very well push Fritz to his limits. Sinner is also excellent in return games. Given that Fritz is very reliant on his first serve, these could be very factorising with Sinner converting 35/67 second serve return points and winning 21/64 first serve return points.
Sinner will look to take control of the rallies by pushing Fritz wide and hitting at his backhand with sharp angles. Given Fritz's powerful serve, the Italian's ability to absorb pace and counter-punch will be important in the match-especially on the second serve, which has proved to be a weakness for Fritz. Sinner needs to disrupt Fritz's rhythm of serving with aggressive returns and put pressure on him with early breaks.
Taylor Fritz (ATP #12)
Taylor Fritz, on the other hand, had to struggle his way to the final. After easing his way through the first three rounds, he then had to fight hard in 4-set wins over Casper Ruud and Alexander Zverev. His semi was against compatriot Frances Tiafoe, whom he came back twice against to win 4-6, 7-5, 4-6, 6-4, 6-1.
Taylor Fritz's serve is his most powerful weapon, and none more apparent than against Tiafoe in the semis, as he connected for 17 aces and held an incredible 93 of 127 first-serve points. The numbers have been quite impressive with Fritz serving, and his flat, hard groundstrokes have really paid dividends on the quicker US Open courts. He is capable of rallying from the back of the court and has improved his movement to make him tough for anyone.
He is going to have to emphasize holding his serve and using his first serve to set up easy points. It will be very important for him to be able to move forward and attack short balls in trying not to get drawn into the long baseline rallies where Sinner excels. Although Fritz has proved vulnerable on his second serve-securing just 25% of points in the semi-final-he will have to mix up serve placement to prevent Sinner from jumping on his second serve too much.
The only way this is going to happen, or mostly be kept away from Sinner dictating in the return games, is if Fritz comes in at his best in first-serve efficiency. Fritz would want to minimize extended rallies where possible and try moving forward to keep the exchanges short where Sinner has less ability to control them. Wherever possible, Sinner is likely to try pushing Fritz out of position, so it will be important for Fritz to be patient, looking for the right moments to strike without overhitting.
Expert Betting Tips
Sinner reaches the final in scintillating form, on an 11-match win streak, and double-faulting just once against Draper in their semifinal. His all-around game gives him a slight edge over Fritz because he can work under pressure and nullify big servers. It's been a great run by Fritz, but he does look vulnerable in some of the longer matches, particularly with his second serve. That could be exposed by Sinner. That consistency of Sinner, along with his better returning game, should see him across the line in this final.
While Sinner is the favorite, Fritz has a kind of firepower that can easily steal a set-very much so with his serve. The resilience of Fritz in longer matches has been remarkable, but greater consistency from Sinner and his grinding ability in tough points should prevail. A projected Sinner early dominance but with resistance from Fritz should see him drop one set.
With both players serving and hitting powerfully from the baseline, this match should have a number of closely contested sets. Sinner has dominated, but Fritz often pushes his opponents to go to and beyond the brink-as he did in the semifinal-suggesting that this one can go well past 38.5 games with at least a set or two going to, or beyond, deuce.
- Jannik Sinner Win & Over 33.5 Games @ 2 Odds
- Over 38.5 Games @ 1.81 Odds
- Jannik Sinner Wins 3-1 @ 3.40 Odds