The quarterfinal match between Jannik Sinner and Daniil Medvedev promises to be an exciting match between two of the most consistent performers on the ATP Tour for some time. Both players enter the match in a rich vein of form; hence, this is one of the most anticipated matchups of the tournament.
Jannik Sinner (ATP #1)
Jannik Sinner is currently the world number 1 and has been in sublime form. The win in the Round of 16 against Tommy Paul showed his grit and the ability to perform under pressure, specifically under tense circumstances. Even when his first serve percentage was at a lowly 49%, Sinner's first serve points won were impressive - he took home 39 out of 48 first-serve points, indicating his effectiveness when he does get his first serve in. Sinner's game relies on his aggressive baseline play with powerful groundstrokes on both wings. On top of being super consistent, he is on a nine-match winning streak and has taken 12 consecutive sets. This further explains his perfect cool head in converting break points, such as the 4 out of 7 against Paul, and saving them-2 out of 4. Still, he committed 32 unforced errors in his last match to show that he can sometimes be prone to lapses in concentration, and that is what Medvedev will seek to capitalize on.
Sinner's success depends on whether he can control the game with his forehand and remain as aggressive while keeping his unforced errors low. He will have to work on his first-serve percentage, too - not to give the rampant Medvedev too many second serves to look at, a position from where the Russian is pretty effective on returns of serves. Sinner will also have to be prepared for the very long rallies, as Medvedev will try to force errors and make the points longer. Mixing up the play with drop shots and coming to the net could work against the rhythm of Medvedev, but these will need near-perfect execution by Sinner.
Daniil Medvedev (ATP #5)
Daniil Medvedev, seeded 5th in the world, is an older hand who brings much tactical acumen and resilience into play. His demolition of Nuno Borges in the Round of 16, dropping only four games, actually underlined his dominance on the hard courts. His first-serve percentage was a solid 62%, with the Russian winning 36 of 46 first-serve points, an excellent 78%. Added to that, his ability to save four of five break points showed how efficient and clutch he was when it came to moments that counted. Medvedev's game is defined by deep court positioning that allows him to retrieve almost everything and turn defense into offense. His backhand in particular is a weapon, and one that draws errors from his opponents time after time. Medvedev heads into this encounter with the most momentum, on an 11-set winning streak, something which will have a psychological impact, too, seeing how his three straight victories over Sinner came all on outdoor hard courts.
Medvedev will try to do what he does best: staying well back behind the baseline, soaking up Sinner's power, and trying to counterpunch his way to frustrating the Italian. The first serve will be important for Medvedev; he needs to maintain a high percentage and will look to control rallies from the very beginning. His backhand will be vital in negating the power of Sinner's groundstrokes. Medvedev could also try to make Sinner hit many unforced errors, using variations of pace and angles that pull him out of position. In fact, the greatest asset for Medvedev will be his consistency in long rallies, which will make Sinner play at a very high level during most of the match.
Expert Betting Tips
This match is well-placed to go right to the wire considering the current form of both players. While Sinner is doubtless in the best phase of his career considering his rise to world number one and the nine-match winning streak he is on, Medvedev's experience, better head-to-head record, and recent success on outdoor hard courts against Sinner give him a slight edge.
While Sinner is more than capable of delivering a brilliant performance, the consistency and tactical maturity that Medvedev has developed over the last couple of years, not to mention the psychological edge over Sinner he will enjoy by virtue of their previous hard-court matches, make him the slight favorite in this encounter. Expect a battle of attrition with Medvedev outlasting Sinner in a match that might be decided by a few key points.
- Over 36 Games @ 1.6 Odds
- Daniil Medvedev (+1.5) Sets Handicap @ 1.88 Odds
- Daniil Medvedev Win @ 3.20 Odds