One of the exciting battles which will showcase the fresh entrants into men's tennis in the 2024 US Open was the quarterfinal match between Jack Draper and Alex de Minaur. Coming into the game, both have been in impressive form; this, therefore, was an encounter full of expectations. Both players have become confident: Draper has enjoyed the best career start, while Australian speedster de Minaur has been among the most consistent all season. Given that both are gunning for a spot in the first Grand Slam semifinal of their careers, this match-up on the hard courts of Flushing Meadows will mean a lot.
Jack Draper (ATP #25)
Sitting 25th in the ATP standings, Draper has enjoyed a breakout season in 2024. His run to the quarterfinals has been nothing short of impressive, highlighted by a dominating straight-sets win over Tomas Machac in the Round of 16. For Draper, the strong serve and aggressive baseline game have formed the cornerstones that have enabled him to dominate his opponents. The numbers against Machac tell a story: 11 aces, and break points converted at 100%, serve to tell just how efficient he was but also how mentally tough. Draper has run off four in a row now, not having lost a set, which is the record of an in-form player.
Draper will have to dominate with his serve if he is to win, and that is going to mean dictating from the baseline. His first serve percentage against Machac was a lowly 49% and will need to be far higher to avoid de Minaur getting into the match. This power off both wings from Draper can give de Minaur a lot of trouble, but at the same time, he needs to be humble and not overcommit to too much aggressive shots, because de Minaur really thrives on redirecting the pace and making his opponents make mistakes. Second, Draper's net play may prove extremely telling: for one thing, by finishing points at the net, he is able to short-circuit the rallies before de Minaur gets the chance to do what he does so well defensively-extending them.
Alex De Minaur (ATP #10)
The 10th-seeded De Minaur further solidified a place in the top echelons, making an impression for yet another Grand Slam with his round-of-16 win over compatriot Jordan Thompson in four sets, showing all the trademark resilience and counterpunching ability. De Minaur's game is built on his excellent speed and defensive skills, but he also developed his offense, particularly on return, something quite evident in the clash against Thompson. He made 41 from 52 first-serve points, turning 7 break points into wins to show how prepared he was to pounce on any chance.
De Minaur will want to utilize his pace and excellent coverage of the court to neutralize the power of Draper. Few players are as adept at turning seemingly lost causes into winners, and then transitioning from defense to offense. De Minaur will have to keep Draper off balance by making deep, consistent returns and changing the pace and direction of his groundstrokes. Another important thing will be the attacking of Draper's second serve, which can often be a weakness. Equally critical, in the big moments, will be de Minaur playing the big points well, as underlined by his solid break-point conversion rate.
Expert Betting Tips
This is likely to be a tight physical contest, with both players enjoying their moments in the sun. With Draper now into his rhythm, the superior movement, tactical acumen, and psychological edge that de Minaur derived from his previous encounters over the Englishman give him a slight edge in this contest. If Draper is going to cause an upset, much will depend on his first-serve percentage and unforced errors, which he should look to keep high and low, respectively. He will most probably emerge as the winner if de Minaur can enforce his counter-punching game and frustrate Draper into overplaying.
That is slightly tempered by Draper's recent form and the unpredictability of his high-risk, high-reward game. The consistency of de Minaur and head-to-head dominance make him the slight favorite.
- Alex de Minaur Win @ 1.75 Odds
- Over 37.5 Games @ 1.82 Odds
- Alex de Minaur Win 3-1 @ 4.33 Odds