Iga Swiatek vs Jessica Pegula Prediction: Swiatek has the skills to disarm Pegula

The most highly-anticipated US Open Quarterfinal match on September 4, 2024, features World No. 1 Iga Swiatek versus the in-form World No. 6 Jessica Pegula. Both enter with dominant performances in the Round of 16 and bring lots of momentum into this battle. With her lethal combination of aggressive baseline play and strategic precision, Swiatek looks to lock down her second US Open title. Meanwhile, Pegula is in the hunt for a spot for the very first time in a Grand Slam semifinal, propelled by an impressive spree of wins.

Coming into this match, the favorite will be Iga Swiatek due to her number one world ranking and 8-2 in her last 10. In the Round of 16, her all-court versatility was on full display in a victory over Liudmila Samsonova. Swiatek can combine powerful groundstrokes with precise placement, and at times some really clever use of angles that has seen her become a formidable opponent on the hard courts of Flushing Meadows.

Swiatek's game thrives on the fact that she is able to dominate points from the baseline, especially with the potent forehand. She will also try to exploit Pegula's second serve, which has been a bit of a liability throughout her career thus far. Swiatek's return game is among the best in the world, and she'll look to immediately put pressure on Pegula during the start of her service games by forcing errors or weak replies she can attack.

Moreover, Swiatek moves around the court quite well. Often in long rallies, the ease with which she can transition from defense to offense gives her a great advantage. In playing against such consistent opponents as Pegula, Swiatek will need to exhibit patience, looking for opportunities to really go for her shots, particularly on the forehand side. Although Swiatek's serve is not a big weapon, it certainly has been much better in the competition so far, and she will have to keep the first-serve percentage high against Pegula's deep returns. Variation of shots will be key as the Pole uses drop shots and slices to disrupt Pegula.

Jessica Pegula has been one of the most consistent players on tour in 2024. The 6th-ranked player in the world, Pegula has been in good form, compiling a 9-1 record in her last 10 matches, and the Round of 16 victory over Diana Shnaider marked her fourth in a row in straight sets. Pegula's game is based around a strong serve, consistency from the baseline, and exceptional mental toughness-all things that have seen her rise slowly but surely up the rankings. Where she has powerful and precise groundstrokes, particularly off the backhand side, she can keep calm under pressure.

She places her first serve deep and well into the service box, even though it is not the fastest, and she follows it up with some very good baseline play. Pegula will be seeking to extend the rallies working Swiatek for unforced errors-most especially targeting Swiatek's backhand, which can occasionally break down under more sustained pressure. Pegula's return game is another feature of her game. She'll need to be aggressive on return-against both first and second serve-to push Swiatek back early in rallies. How well Pegula can construct points methodically with depth and angles will count for much in this match. Pegula will have to be disciplined and not take the bait to go for too much too early in points. Mentally, Pegula has been quite strong, but she will have to hold on to this steadiness, especially at critical moments like break points or tight games. She will need to manage her unforced errors well since Swiatek will pounce upon the slightest letdown in her opponent's game.

It's a well-matched contest between two fine players, both reaching good form. However, Swiatek's better movement, tactically richer game, and favorable recent output against Pegula tilt the advantage to her side. Because she is capable of imposing her game plan in aggressive fashion-she needs only to limit her mistakes-Swiatek should emerge victorious.

With Swiatek as the favorite, Pegula's form and consistency of late make this a potentially tight encounter. Really expect Pegula to make life very difficult for Swiatek and even take a set, but ultimately, the ability of Swiatek to elevate in critical moments should see her advance to the semifinals.

• Iga Swiatek Win & Over 2.5 Sets @ 3.8 Odds
• Jessica Pegula to Win a Set @ 2.04 Odds
• Iga Swiatek Win 2-1 @ 3.60 Odds