Elise Mertens vs Aryna Sabalenka Prediction: Sabalenka to win in straight sets

The 2024 US Open Round of 16 match between Elise Mertens and Aryna Sabalenka should be one heck of a matchup. Both women come into the contest after great performances, with Mertens defeating high-level opponents such as Veronika Kudermetova and Madison Keys, while Sabalenka continued to impose her will, showing how forceful her game can be. With Sabalenka ranked 2nd in the world and Mertens at 35th, the odds are clearly in her favor. But Mertens has made a resilient and tactically astute run into this stage.

Elise Mertens enters this match in high spirits, after pulling off three wins in a row here at the US Open. One of those was against Madison Keys in a really hard-hitting battle that went to three sets. What has perhaps impressed the most is Mertens' court coverage, her mental toughness, and how she runs and runs to break opponents down with long, grueling rallies. Consistency, along with a strong backhand, has been the benchmark of Mertens' game, tactically incorporating both drop shots and slices to remove the opponent from the rhythm of the aggressive game. She comes into the final in arguably her best form, having won 6 of the last 10 matches.

Mertens will need to try and neutralize Sabalenka's power by drawing her into longer rallies and forcing her into errors. The Belgian's backhand, more solid than her forehand, will be significant in defusing Sabalenka's raw pace and opening the court for opportunities. Though Mertens does not have the strong serving of Sabalenka, her serve is good enough to set up the point, and she will have to mix up her serves well enough not to be predictable.

The best chance, however, would be to employ her variety and distort Sabalenka's rhythm. That would mean using slices and drop shots, and maybe even a few moonballs too, to alter pace. Mertens will also need to take advantage of the less-than-consistent moments from Sabalenka by attacking second serves and pressuring the Belarusian early in rallies.

Aryna Sabalenka, on the other hand, goes into this tie in scintillating form, with an 8-match winning streak. The powerhouse Belarusian has been almost unstoppable, using her explosive serve and relentless groundstrokes to overpower any opponent standing in her way. Her 2-1 victory over Ekaterina Alexandrova of the previous round showed how she can dig deep and come through in pressure situations-a quality that will be important against a tenacious opponent like Mertens. Sabalenka is a tough opponent with her aggressive baseline game, improved movement, and mental toughness.

Sabalenka is mostly about imposing her game from the baseline: she will be using her strong serve and heavy groundstrokes, especially to the forehand-the weaker wing of Mertens-in order to control the game. She therefore dictates with her aggressive return of serve and immediately puts pressure on Mertens to deny the Belgian a chance to work her way into the service games.

However, it would be overhitting and too many unforced errors that keep Mertens in this match, and Sabalenka needs to be really careful about that. While her movement has gotten a bit better, she will have to be quite focused deep in the match against Mertens' change of pace and direction. The bottom line is going to be maintaining controlled aggression, finding that balance between power and precision.

Given their head-to-head of 7-2 in her favor, where she has won the last six encounters, it is a given that she will have a psychological edge. Sabalenka's form has been outstanding with 9 wins in her last 10 matches, including an 8-match winning streak. With her powerful baseline game now underlined by improved consistency and mental toughness, she looks all set to dispatch Mertens once again.

With Sabalenka's aggressive style, coming into the tournament in form and leading her head-to-head, it suggests the win should be straight-forward. Mertens does have the ability to make this tight, especially if she can expose Sabalenka's occasional inconsistency, but the fire power and momentum with the Belarusian should see her into the quarterfinals.

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