Elena Rybakina vs Destanee Aiava Prediction: Elena Rybakina is unmatched

The US Open first round pits the 4th seed, Elena Rybakina, against Australian wildcard Destanee Aiava. This is a match of contrasting ranking and experience, with Rybakina one of the more favored women to win the championship and Aiava looking to make a big splash.

Rybakina has had a very good 2024 hard-court season, having snatched the crucial titles in Miami and Indian Wells. Her recent form is very fine, having won four out of the last five matches with victories against higher-ranked opponents to boot. With strong, powerful serves and an aggressive baseline game, Rybakina fits quite nicely into the fast pace here at Flushing Meadows.

Rybakina's game is primarily based on a powerful serve and aggressive play from the baseline. She will thus look to dominate the rallies by commanding early control of the first serve, thereby targeting high percentages and not giving Aiava easy opportunities. For her to accomplish this, she will need to hit deep and consistent groundstrokes, which will be very key in keeping Aiava pushed behind the baseline, where she may struggle to defend.

Another asset Rybakina has is her ability to deal with pressure. She generally does well in tight situations. She will try to keep the match up-beat and bounce her opponent around the court with anyone showing inconsistent game play. She'll likely try to keep the points short and aggressive to conserve energy while also keeping Aiava on the back foot.

Aiava has had an almost even win-loss record in her season this year. She has been pretty inconsistent of late, gathering two wins and three losses in the last five matches. Although lower ranked, Aiava has shown potential on hard courts. Groundstrokes are the center of her game, which she pairs with quick movement, but often there seems to be a missing link to finding consistency against better opposition.

The key to the Aiava game will be to break the rhythm of Rybakina with variation and quick court coverage. She'll need to serve well not to continually find herself back and on the defensive, trying to keep the rallies as neutral as possible. Because Rybakina is such a big hitter, Aiava might look to toss in drop shots or slices to bring her opponent forward, forcing her out of her comfort zone up at the baseline.

Aiava will succeed or fail based on the mental strength she's able to bring out, and whether she can keep those unforced errors at a minimum. Being an underdog might free her up to swing freely and be ultra-aggressive early, particularly in return games.

Contemplating the form, ranking, and style of play, there is only one favorite in this match: Elena Rybakina. Power, consistency, and stage experience weigh in heavily on her side, making her the overwhelming favorite over Aiava, who would have to play more or less the best tennis of her life to stay close.

While Rybakina is a huge favorite, if Aiava can get on top of an off day for Rybakina—particularly poor serving first-serve percentage—there might be the slightest opening for an upset. This will require Aiava to play her best tennis, exploiting any lapses of concentration from Rybakina and forcing her into long rallies where mistakes could occur. The probability is really very low for this scenario, however.

Considering her experience, recent form, and the tactical approach that she is bringing into this contest, Rybakina is more likely to win.

• Elena Rybakina Win and Under 17.5 Games at 1.801 Odds
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