Tommy Paul vs Grigor Dimitrov Prediction: A Battle of Consistency and Power in the ATP 250 Final

With the curtain falling on the 2024 Stockholm Open, tennis enthusiasts are poised for what promises to be a mouthwatering final between world 13th-ranked Tommy Paul and his higher-placed 10th-ranked opponent, Grigor Dimitrov. Both have been in stellar form of late, with Dimitrov going 8-2 in his last ten matches, and Paul not too far behind at 7-3. That will be a contest of brawn against finesse as both contestants seek to cap off the year with a title on the indoor hard courts of Stockholm.

The head-to-head series between Paul and Dimitrov stands at 1-1, with the latter taking the last meeting convincingly at the 2020 US Open. So much has changed since then, and this final in Stockholm is just another page to this rivalry between the two players. Tommy Paul has developed into the more attacking player. With his experience, consistency will be put through a test in Dimitrov.

Tommy Paul enters this final on the back of a straight-sets victory over Stan Wawrinka, playing with high efficiency on serve and return. He won 2-0: 6-3, 6-2, recording a healthy 67% first serve success rate while saving all break points and converting 3 of 9 break opportunities. Further, another reason that he is formidable is because he has won six in a row and three consecutive matches.

Tommy Paul will be looking to keep the points short, using his powerful serve and aggressive baseline play to dictate rallies. Given his great return game-69% second-serve return points won in his last match-Paul will seek to pressurize Dimitrov's second serve, which has shown signs of weakness. Also very important is the first serve percentage from Paul, as he would want this high to keep control of the tempo.

Coming into this match, Grigor Dimitrov was resilient in his last match, coming from a set down to take down Tallon Griekspoor 2-1 (2-6, 7-5, 6-4). Dimitrov's serve was dominant with eight aces, but five double faults and 24% first-serve return points won did hint at some vulnerability from the Bulgarian. Nevertheless, he looked very capable of grinding through tough situations and now sets up a very interesting final against Paul.

Grigor Dimitrov, known for his all-court game, has to mix it-variation through slices, drop shots, and aggressive net approaches-to break Paul's rhythm. Considering he had an inconsistent serve at times during his last match, Dimitrov will be in a position where he has to sharpen his first-serve focus, as Paul has a very fine return game. Also, Dimitrov's second serve won him 56% of his points against Griekspoor, so it has to be good enough not to give away too much on the return to Paul.

Coming into this final, Paul is at a statistical slight advantage because of his recent efficiency both on serve and return. His tendencies for first and second-serve returns to dominate-32% and 69%, respectively-may be the difference-maker in the long run, should Dimitrov start off struggling with his serve. Dimitrov has the more complete all-around game, though, and might therefore handle the pace and conditions best if he can avoid the unforced errors and manage the net exchanges.

Based on current form and the way he has been implementing his tactics, Tommy Paul does seem primed for the Stockholm title. His balance of serve and return-of-serve will give him the edge indoors where holding onto the serve is paramount.

But given Dimitrov's penchant for dragging out matches, and Paul's aggressive game, this is one final that could go the distance-in three sets, or at least with a very close second set.

• Tommy Paul Wins @ 1.72 Odds
• Over 22.5 Games @ 1.74 Odds
• Tommy Paul Wins First Set @ 1.72 Odds