Stefanos Tsitsipas vs Facundo Cerundolo Prediction: Tsitsipas has the upper hand on Hardcourt Indoor Surface

The ATP 500 Basel tournament pits Stefanos Tsitsipas, currently 11th-ranked in this season, against Argentina's Facundo Cerundolo, who sits 30th in a Round of 32 contest. Each player goes into this match on less-than-encouraging heels of a disappointing loss in their previous respective tournaments, but Basel offers a chance at redemption. Tsitsipas will try to re-impose his dominance with an aggressive, all-court game on indoor hard, whereas traditionally Cerundolo is much better on clay and will try to break the Greek rhythm. Their late-season momentum fight puts an interesting tactical setting onto this match.

Stefanos Tsitsipas has had an inconsistent year to this point, coming into Basel with a 5-5 record in his last 10 matches. His loss last week to Jiri Lehecka of Antwerp showed he is vulnerable in return games, as he failed to capitalize on his break point opportunities, going 0-for. Tsitsipas will look to come in sharper with his serve, but he really needs to have a better return game against Cerundolo since his serve was good against the loss in Antwerp, 8 aces, 58% first serve.

Tsitsipas enjoys the indoor hard courts, which allow his trump card-the big serve and forehand-to outmuscle opponents in rallies. Aggressive net games are also a factor in the shortening of the points. But Tsitsipas has been vulnerable at his backhand and return games this season so far, which Cerundolo will try to use to his advantage. The other would be holding serve as consistently as possible, taking advantage of break-point chances, considering Tsitsipas did not convert any of those against Lehecka. He will try to mix some serve-and-volley plays in there to take time away from the groundstrokes of Cerundolo.

His inconsistency can be seen in his last 10 matches. He did reach the quarterfinals in Antwerp, but the defeat against Lehecka did underline once more the ongoing struggles with returning and converting break points. He needs to work on getting his first-serve percentage to a much better result, as 58% is too little. The 97% second-serve stat, though, shows some confidence at moments that matter most. Indoors, he is indeed a much stronger player, and Basel will provide

Facundo Cerundolo has been a seemingly much better clay-court player but has shown glimpses on faster courts that included a semifinal outing in Almaty on indoor hardcourt. Still, his loss to Gabriel Diallo was concerning with his serve failing to contain 6 double faults, failing to save break points and converting zero on return. He will have to clean up his game and count on baseline consistency if he is going to test Tsitsipas.

Cerundolo does favor longer baseline rallies, during which he can wear opponents down with his steadiness and heavy topspin. Nevertheless, he has his own challenge in adjusting to the fast indoor conditions and the cutthroat style of Tsitsipas. His serve was pretty unreliable in Almaty; should he continue ceding free points through double faults, Tsitsipas will punish him. Cerundolo's return game is going to have to elevate as Tsitsipas looks to dominate on serve. He will also need to exploit Tsitsipas's backhand with deep, angled shots to push him out of position and open up the court for forehand winners.

The overall form does slightly favor Cerundolo, who comes in with a 6-4 mark in his last 10. However, he could not have been worse - either serving or returning - in his last match played at Almaty. Double faults and an inability to convert on return are big question marks for a player against someone of Tsitsipas' caliber. He will be required to raise his level a lot against getting overpowered.

Given that Tsitsipas is at his best on indoor hardcourt and Cerundolo is still to get comfortable on this surface, he becomes an emphatic favorite for this quarter-final match. Indeed, Tsitsipas will look to dominate this match with his serve and aggressive forehand play, often keeping Cerundolo on the back foot.

In this case, Tsitsipas should be able to win in straight sets. It would be highly implausible for Cerundolo to have the weapons to extend the match to a third set, especially considering his serving issues of late, on the faster surface.

Given the indoor conditions and the reliance Tsitsipas places on his serve, he should easily be over 8.5 aces against the relatively weaker return game of Cerundolo.

• Stefanos Tsitsipas Wins & Under 2.5 Sets @ 1.72 Odds
• Stefanos Tsitsipas (-1.5) Sets Handicap @ 2.00 Odds
• Stefanos Tsitsipas Wins 2-0 @ 2.20 Odds