Stefanos Tsitsipas vs Botic Van De Zandschlup: Tsitsipas looks to build on narrow win while Van De Zandschulp eyes an upset.

The Basel ATP 500 has reached the last-16 stage, where Stefanos Tsitsipas will take on Botic Van De Zandschulp. World number 11 Tsitsipas is yet to get into his groove this season and will hope a good streak can bring out the best in him. A tight three-set win over Francisco Cerundolo was only partly relieving. Meanwhile, Van De Zandschulp has been quietly building momentum, entering this match on a three-match win streak, including against Alexander Bublik-albeit via retirement. This match promises to be an intriguing clash of styles and mental fortitude.

Tsitsipas leads 1-0 in head-to-head matches, with the previous match between the players having come in Antwerp in 2023; Tsitsipas cruised through with a 2-0 win. That win on indoor hard courts, of course, is the same surface they are going to play on in Basel and does give Tsitsipas at least a slight psychological boost. However, the Dutchman is a player of great moment and change when he finds his rhythm, and his form coming into this certainly suggests that this could be much closer.

The Greek powerhouse Tsitsipas, known for his fluid one-handed backhand and aggressive baseline play, will likely try to dominate from the very beginning. His serve was in great working order in the last match, where he hit 6 aces, and he has maintained a high percentage of points on the first serve: 77%. However, he has struggled on his second serve at 46%, which may allow Van De Zandschulp a chance to attack.

The key for Tsitsipas will be to impose his aggressive play early on. He'll want to dictate with his serve and forehand, trying to pin Van De Zandschulp deep behind the baseline. His capability of winning quick points will be crucial in not allowing long rallies, which would perhaps favor the steadier Dutchman. Tsitsipas' challenge will be to make sure he doesn't fall into periods of inconsistency, particularly off his second serve, which Van De Zandschulp will look to prey on with deep, flat returns.

Confident, Van De Zandschulp will be a dangerous opponent. The Dutchman has a decent first serve-72% in-and has also converted break points at crucial times. The ranking difference is 56 places, but Van De Zandschulp would not be an easy mark, considering his excellent form in recent weeks.

Van De Zandschulp needs to be focused on neutering Tsitsipas' power. If he can extend the rallies, then he will expose some of the Greek's impatience. His return game, particularly on second serves, was key-56% second serve return points won in his last match. Varied depth and pace, using the slice to disrupt Tsitsipas' rhythm and force him into uncomfortable positions, is what the Dutchman needs to do.

But while Tsitsipas comes into this match with the higher ranking and their prior head-to-head victory, it would be unwise to underestimate the current form of Van De Zandschulp. Tsitsipas has flashes of brilliance in his recent matches but has equally suffered from dips in focus that could prove costly against a tenacious opponent like the Dutchman.

Tsitsipas will most likely look to end the rallies in as short a time as possible by using his serve and forehand as his most powerful weapons. The more measured approach of Van De Zandschulp, however, could well annoy the Greek into prolonging the rallies and then attacking the second serve, which is not his strong suit. If the Dutchman can break Tsitsipas early in the match, the momentum will be on his side.

With that said, Tsitsipas's ability to pull through when it really matters - saving 71% of break points in his last match - just might give him the edge. Given the respective strengths of the players, it is tough to envision a scenario in which Van De Zandschulp comes out on top, but he will take Tsitsipas down to the wire.

• Stefanos Tsitsipas (-2.5) Games Handicap @ 1.668 Odds
• Over 22.5 Games @ 1.76 Odds
• Stefanos Tsitsipas Wins 2-1 @ 3.50 Odds