Stan Wawrinka vs Tommy Paul Prediction: A Battle of Power and Precision; Can Wawrinka Continue His Renaissance Against the Rising Paul?

As the semifinals of the ATP 250 Stockholm Open close in, an outstanding encounter graces the court between Stan Wawrinka, the accomplished Swiss gladiator, and Tommy Paul, the young American gunslinger. Therefore, entering this match, both of them carry some streaks with them: Wawrinka is battle-hardened and tested with his powerful one-handed backhand, while Paul exudes relentless energy combined with variety. Ranked ATP 217, Wawrinka has flashed his old self in glimpses, especially in that stunning win over Rublev. Meanwhile, ATP 13 Paul has shown consistent elite form in 2024 and had reached here with a commanding victory over Miomir Kecmanovic. With both players hungry for a spot in the finals, this will be one keen tactical match.

Stan Wawrinka, once as regular as the postman in the top 10, fought his way back after a succession of injuries and defied his ranking to reach a semifinal spot in Stockholm. His victory over Andrey Rublev showed that Wawrinka still had some semblance of the mental toughness and physical firepower that made him a Grand Slam champion, as he won both tiebreaks. Wawrinka hasn't had too much of a struggle with his serve in the last couple matches, hitting 14 aces and saving 75% of break points in the last match.

Wawrinka will take support from his serve and signature backhand. The ability to dictate with groundstrokes will be the key to success. Most probably, Stan's game plan would be to dominate baseline exchanges, as he would take help from his heavy topspin forehand and powerful backhand, which will force Paul behind the baseline. He will most probably be aggressive on the return of Paul's second serve because his return stats depict that he wins 41% of the second-serve returns. However, Wawrinka still has to work on his break point conversion as he was successful in converting only one point in his last match.

Tommy Paul has been in great form, having won 7 out of his last 10 matches, and is currently at a career ranking high of 13th in the world. Paul's straight-set victory over Kecmanovic - 7-6, 6-2 - was a testimony to his all-court game and solid return skills as he converted 4 break points and did extremely well on second-serve returns, winning 60% of them. The consistency and fitness of Paul make him not an easy proposition for anyone. Additionally, the variety which he can bring about in baseline exchanges should help against the strong power game of Wawrinka.

Paul will be focusing on Wawrinka's movement, trying to use his better fitness and quickness to drag Stan into longer rallies. His high return percentages, particularly the 60% in on second serves, may force Wawrinka to be more aggressive on his serve. In order to nullify Stan's power, Paul may try a mix of slice and variation of pace to make the Swiss hit off balance. Paul could rapidly change direction, moving ahead to the net, which could destroy Wawrinka's rhythm.

The head-to-head stands at 1-1 as Tommy Paul took their last meeting in straight sets at the ATP 500 in London 2022. This will be a nice psychological boost for Paul, but Wawrinka is an animal when in form, especially indoors, where his game really thrives on the low bounce and slick conditions.

A few things could decide this match: whether Wawrinka can keep his first-serve percentage high and execute his backhand under pressure, and how well Paul can sustain the long rallies and attack the Wawrinka second serve. Wawrinka is on a streak of three straight wins, which perhaps means that he is regaining momentum, but the inability to convert break points may prove costly against Paul, who has been clinical in converting his opportunities.

The surface also comes into play here: the indoor hard court of Stockholm was tailored to an attacking baseliner's style, but Wawrinka; instead, the game of Paul has a lot of versatility and athleticism that can often neutralize power by getting defensive and counter-punching.

• Tommy Paul Wins + Over 19.5 Games @ 1.8 Odds
• Over 22.5 Games @ 1.92 Odds
• Tommy Paul Wins 2-1 @ 3.50 Odds